Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – Senate District 30
Incumbent – John Smith (R – Term Limited in 2019)
District Map
Vote History
2008 President |
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Current District | New District | |
John McCain (R) | 31719 (76%) | 30675 (76%) |
Barack Obama (D) | 9196 (22%) | 9106 (22%) |
Others | 855 (2%) | 829 (2%) |
2008 Senate |
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Current District | New District | |
Mary Landrieu (D) | 16237 (41%) | 15870 (41%) |
John Kennedy (R) | 22059 (55%) | 21324 (55%) |
Others | 1555 (4%) | 1510 (4%) |
2010 Senate |
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Current District | New District | |
David Vitter (R) | 17751 (71%) | 17043 (71%) |
Charlie Melancon (D) | 5155 (21%) | 5063 (21%) |
Others | 2003 (8%) | 1932 (8%) |
2010 Lt Governor |
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Current District | New District | |
Jay Dardenne (R) | 17487 (71%) | 16790 (71%) |
Caroline Fayard (D) | 7147 (29%) | 6984 (29%) |
Current District
District 30 contains all of Beauregard and Vernon Parishes, plus the more rural northern and western fringes of Calcasieu Parish. The district has a low 11% black voter registration, which has not changed much since the last reapportionment. Politically, this district has voted heavily Republican in the last several Presidential elections, and in statewide elections, the district’s tendency to support Republicans has strengthened recently: in the 2010 elections, both David Vitter and Jay Dardenne received 71% of the vote here.
This is a district that re-elects its incumbents, and until recently only voted for Democrats. Democrat Bryan Poston from Vernon Parish was its senator from 1967-1991. He was succeeded by Democrat James David Cain from Dry Creek in Beauregard Parish. Senator Cain served for four terms until term limits forced him to retire in 2007, and switched to the Republican Party before his 2003 re-election. Probably in anticipation of term limits, he not only ran unsuccessfully for Insurance Commissioner in 2006, but he also attempted unsuccessfully to win his old House seat back in 2007.
The open seat race to succeed Senator Cain in 2007 was one of several Senate races where the Republicans did not bother to compete, and this arguably kept them from winning a majority in the Senate that year. Three Democrats sought the seat, and state Representative John Smith of Leesville narrowly defeated former legislator/former Congressman “Buddy” Leach 52-48% in the runoff. Smith was one of several Senators to switch parties after the 2010 elections, and his switch (combined with Sen. Alario’s switch and two special election victories earlier this year) helped pave the way for a Republican Senate. He is allowed to serve two more terms.
Proposed District
Redistricting in southwest Louisiana was relatively simple. The demographics weren’t there to create additional “majority minority” seats, and District 30 was almost exactly the population needed for a new district. Only minor changes were made to the district: three precincts near Sulphur were traded between District 30 and District 27 (represented by Democrat Willie Mount), with no political impact. Given the Republican trend in the district, Senator Smith (or any other Republican) shouldn’t have much issue getting elected here.