Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 74

Incumbent – Scott Simon (R – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

House District 74

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 20263 (79%) 15486 (79%)
Barack Obama (D) 5017 (19%) 3634 (19%)
Others 495 (2%) 380 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 9004 (36%) 6739 (35%)
John Kennedy (R) 15519 (61%) 11811 (62%)
Others 742 (3%) 572 (3%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 13771 (76%) 10552 (77%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 3353 (19%) 2431 (18%)
Others 971 (5%) 726 (5%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 13650 (76%) 10447 (77%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4397 (24%) 3198 (23%)

Current District

House District 74 is one of several districts in the Florida Parish whose political complexion and partisan representation have been transformed by suburbanization. The district itself contains portions of three parishes: the northeastern quadrant of Tangipahoa Parish east of the Tangipahoa River and north of Tickfaw. In Washington Parish, it includes a handful of precincts between the Tangipahoa River and the Bogue Chitto River. And in St Tammany Parish, it includes most of the northern portions between Abita Springs and the Washington Parish line.

This is a district that demographically is 9% black by voter registration, a figure which has remained unchanged throughout the decade. And thanks to strong suburban growth in St Tammany and (to some extent) in Tangipahoa, you have a district that is becoming increasingly suburban, as 62% of the district vote is cast in St. Tammany, 30% in Tangipahoa, and 8% in Washington Parish.

The main political consequence of this suburbanization is that you have a district that not only has cast more decisive Republican margins in contested statewide races, but this preference has begun to show up in legislative races as well. From 1971 to 1999, a Democrat named Bill Strain represented the district. He began to face competitive elections starting in 1987, and in 1995, the Republican legislative surge that was present in the Florida Parishes that year reached this district, as a Republican challenger received 42% of the vote (46% in the St. Tammany precincts).

Strain retired in 1999, and was replaced by Republican Mike Strain, who in his race didn’t even face Democratic competition. He was unopposed in 2003, and vacated the district in 2007 to run successfully for Agriculture Commissioner, defeating longtime Democratic incumbent Bob Odom in the process.

In the race to succeed Strain, four candidates sought the open seat. The lone Democrat in the race received 15% of the vote, and the victor, Republican Scott Simon, received 49% of the primary vote and was elected when his Republican runoff opponent withdrew. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) He is allowed to serve two more terms, and was unopposed in 2011.

New District

Robust population growth in Tangipahoa and St Tammany Parishes resulted in two new seats (one in each parish) being created. District 74 was 29% over the population of an “ideal” House district (in fact, only three House districts had more people) and was pared back. This meant that in Tangipahoa Parish, a horizontal slice between Tickfaw and Amite was removed and placed in a newly created Tangipahoa district. In St. Tammany Parish, the Covington precincts were placed either in the new St. Tammany district or District 77 (represented by John Schroder). Finally, two precincts in Washington/northern St Tammany were traded between District 75 (represented by Harold Ritchie)

These changes had minimal change, although the black voter registration decreased from 9 to 8%, and St Tammany’s influence on the district increased from 62 to 65%, and Tangipahoa’s decreased from 30 to 20%.  (UPDATED 9/9/2011) Rep. Simon (or Republicans in general) shouldn’t have any issues with getting elected from this district