Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – Senate District 19
District Map
Senate District 19
Voting History
| 2008 President | ||
| Current District | New District | |
| John McCain (R) | 34631 (59%) | 28747 (58%) |
| Barack Obama (D) | 23037 (39%) | 20291 (41%) |
| Others | 1047 (2%) | 881 (2%) |
| 2008 Senate | ||
| Current District | New District | |
| Mary Landrieu (D) | 30108 (53%) | 26255 (55%) |
| John Kennedy (R) | 25043 (44%) | 20628 (43%) |
| Others | 1132 (2%) | 971 (2%) |
| 2010 Senate | ||
| Current District | New District | |
| David Vitter (R) | 21146 (56%) | 17374 (54%) |
| Charlie Melancon (D) | 15045 (40%) | 13057 (41%) |
| Others | 1649 (4%) | 1494 (5%) |
| 2010 Lt Governor | ||
| Current District | New District | |
| Jay Dardenne (R) | 21391 (57%) | 17397 (55%) |
| Caroline Fayard (D) | 16283 (43%) | 14290 (45%) |
Current District
Senate District 19 sits at the fringes of the New Orleans metropolitan area and includes St. Charles Parish, most of the east bank of St. John Parish, and the northern portions of Lafourche Parish around Thibodaux. It has a moderate 30% black voter population (up from 26% after the district lines were drawn). The increase in the African-American vote is mostly due to black suburban migration to St. John Parish, which has seen an increase in its share of the black vote from 36 to 47% of the vote since 2003.
Politically, Senate District 19 is a swing district, with the slight Republican leanings of St. Charles Parish (which casts 42% of the vote) being offset by the Democratic leanings of Lafourche and St. John Parishes. Not only does it usually support the statewide winner, but it does so at about the statewide average. The last time the district voted for the loser in a statewide election was when it supported Bobby Jindal in 2003, who ran strongly in the New Orleans media market.
Even though District 19 is willing to vote for Republicans at the top of the ticket, Democrats have represented the area for years. And, except for two contested elections in the 1990s, the district has had steady representation in the state Senate. Democrat Ron Landry of LaPlace represented the area for 6 terms and had little trouble winning re-election. However, he was held to 52% of the vote in 1995 against a fellow Democrat, and Democratic state Representative Joel Chaisson II upset Sen. Landry 53-47% in 1999. Since that election, Senator Chaisson was unopposed both in 2003 and 2007. Term limits, however, means that Chaisson cannot run for re-election this year.
Proposed District
Unlike most districts in the orbit of the New Orleans metropolitan area, District 19 had more than enough people for similar district to be drawn, as its population was 10% above that of an ideal district. However, the loss of a black Senate district in New Orleans meant that a new black majority district had to be drawn elsewhere. One of those places was in the River Parishes. While several senate districts in the area were able to supply the necessary territory to create the new district, Senate District 19 ended up supplying about 28,000 residents from Lafourche, St John and St Charles Parishes. This meant that the district had to expand further into Lafourche and, for the first time, into a section of Kenner south of I-10 where 74% of its voters were black. This resulted in a district with a black voter registration that increased from 30 to 33%, and whose Democratic voting performance is a few percentage points higher.
In summary, the new district now includes parts of four parishes. It includes a 74% black (by voter registration) portion of Kenner near the airport. It still includes all of St Charles Parish except for a black majority precinct on the Westbank of the Mississippi River. Its St John portion is 37% black and includes most of LaPlace. Finally, it now includes a portion of Lafourche on either side of Highway 90, which includes the towns of Raceland and Mathews.
While redistricting changes make the district more Democratic, it is more accurate to describe this open seat as politically marginal. While it generally votes Republican at the top of the ballot, it does not yet have the tradition of electing Republicans to the Legislature. If the Republicans have a strong candidate and/or Democratic turnout is low this year, Republicans can pick up the seat. If the Democrats can run a candidate with local appeal and/or Democratic turnout is respectable, Democrats will likely hold onto this seat.