2011 Elections, October 3 Edition
In our previous installment, we discussed the upcoming elections within and without Louisiana that will be held in October and November. In this article, we will focus only on October elections. [...]
JMCEL’s “Pulse of Louisiana” Poll
Recently, JMC Enterprises of Louisiana was commissioned by the Hayride to poll Louisiana voters on their preferences in the Lt Governor and the Secretary of State’s race. The Hayride has done a complete writeup here; the actual poll is here.
Turnout and why it matters
One of the most misunderstood areas of election analysis is the impact that turnout intensity (or lack thereof) can have on a race. For Louisiana elections, turnout intensity is most noticeable when you look at the extent to which whites and blacks vote. One of the oldest truisms in Louisiana electoral politics is that whites turn out proportionately more than blacks do. In this article, we would like to use examples both at the statewide and legislative level to illustrate how this truism impacts (or can impact) elections. [...]
2011 Elections, September 21 Edition
In our previous installment, we analyzed the twin victories for the GOP in two special Congressional elections. In both cases, the “Obama plunge” (explained here) resurfaced – it was a 9 point plunge in New York, while in Nevada, the plunge was 13 points. These types of dilutions in Democratic support, if they continue, will be ominous for President Obama as he seeks to get re-elected next year. [...]
2011 Elections, September 14 Edition (Scott Brown, meet Bob Turner)
Tonight was a very good night for the Republicans, as they were victorious in Congressional special elections that were held both in New York and Nevada. The New York race was nothing short of an upset of Scott Brown proportions, so we will focus on that race today. [...]
2011 Elections, September 11 Edition
In our previous installment, we had noted the onset of Louisiana election season, as well as the fact that Democrats had written off a special House election in Nevada, while getting more nervous about their chances in a special election for a House seat in New York City. [...]
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 3 (Things heat up – a little – on the last day)
Candidate filing has concluded in Louisiana. This was the first year in history that Democrats largely stayed away. So what happened? [...]
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 2 (Things quiet down)
The second day of filing has concluded (the deadline to file is 5PM tomorrow). Most of the remaining “holdouts” among the incumbents did end up filing today, and some more challengers filed today as well. Overall, however, the pace was considerably slower than yesterday (40 candidates for statewide legislative office filed today, as opposed to the 246 who filed yesterday). [...]
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 1 (“Incumbent’s Day”)
The first day of filing concluded, and nearly all incumbents who were supposed to qualify did so, although there were a fair number of challengers who filed today as well. [...]
JMCEL’s Guide to football/election season
One of the biggest mistakes a candidate can make is to be unaware of external events that may distract voters from the candidate’s attempt to reach them. One of those external events is football season. Therefore, we have examined the football schedules of the New Orleans Saints, LSU, and Southern, so that we can see how those events may conflict with “election season.”
The election/political schedule can be accessed here.
