Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets.

This challenge put a premium on having a well-tuned campaign organization, and in that context, Mitt Romney was firing on all cylinders. He swept the state 46-32% over his chief rival Newt Gingrich (Rick Santorum received 13%, and Ron Paul got 7%), and this win was even bigger than the 39% he received in New Hampshire. This was a broad based victory for Romney. As expected, he swept South Florida (which is electorally dominated by Cubans and northeastern retirees) 56-28% over Newt Gingrich. However, Central Florida (with its younger population drawn to the area by employment opportunities) also preferred Romney by an unambiguous 47-32% margin. But what really hurt Gingrich was the vote in the northern part of the state. This region has a Deep South atmosphere and several large military installations, but Newt was only able to eke out a miniscule 39-38% lead over Romney. In fact, it was only in the smaller rural counties that Gingrich was able to show much strength, and that strong showing basically mirrored the South Carolina reults.

As a side note, there are two features about the Florida vote which were not present in the first three contests: (1) turnout actually decreased 15% compared to the similarly decisive 2008 Republican primary, and (2) there was a heavy early vote – it was estimated that over 600K cast their ballots before last night’s vote, meaning that about 3/8 of the voters were making decisions based on events occurring last week.

Looking ahead, “Super Tuesday” is five weeks away on March 6, but the eight upcoming contests (only three of which have delegates tied to the outcome) are tilted towards Mitt Romney. For one thing, none of these states are Southern accented, and this demographic reality helps Romney and hurts Gingrich. Ironically, the one state (Missouri) where Gingrich could have competed in its non-binding February 7 “beauty contest” (Mike Huckabee lost the state by 9,000 votes in the 2008 primary) is out of his reach, since he is not on the ballot there). Furthermore, there will only be one debate (on February 22), so Gingrich will have the additional challenge of getting his message across in unfriendly terrain.

Which leaves us with the question: will there be any candidate withdrawals in the near future to shake up the race further? It’s highly unlikely that Ron Paul will drop out, and Newt Gingrich has indicated that he intends to go the distance. That leaves Rick Santorum, but the fact that he, unlike Gingrich, is on the ballot in Missouri means that he essentially becomes the “anti-Romney” in that contest. So even though presently Santorum is the weakest candidate based on his post Iowa showings, if he can be competitive in upcoming contests (especially in Missouri), his presence (and the accompanying media attention) may keep the Republican race in turmoil, thus enabling Romney to remain above the fray and repeat the “inevitability” argument that he initially brought up in his victory speech last night.

Therefore, the shape of the Republican field will be something we will be continuously analyzing. With the Nevada caucuses this Saturday (Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri are next Tuesday), we think that the outcomes will create a “bandwagon effect” of sorts, as the winner of those contests will enjoy the media spotlight, with nothing (other than a February 11 Maine “straw poll”) to contradict that spotlight until the Arizona and Michigan contests on February 28.

Presidential

Even though “Congressional primary season” doesn’t commence until Ohio’s March 6 primary (Texas’ primary got moved back to at least April 3 due to redistricting litigation), there was a special Congressional election in Oregon last night. The result was not much in doubt: a district in Democratic hands since 1975 that gave Barack Obama 61% of the vote and John Kerry 55% elected Democrat Suzanne Bonamici by a 54-40% margin. This is very similar to the 2010 results, when the disgraced Democrat incumbent who resigned was re-elected 55-42% against the same Republican opponent.

Voter turnout was, for a Congressional special election, a respectable 50% (Oregon conducts its election using mail in ballots), and several things can be extracted from these results: (1) the Pacific Northwest has become increasingly hostile territory for Republicans – even in a bad economy in a relatively affluent district; (2) while there was an “Obama Plunge” (explained here) of 7%, that level of decline in Democratic support is probably not enough for the Republican nominee to feel good about his chances in Oregon, Washington, or California this fall. We noticed a similar level of Democratic sentiment in a special election in Los Angeles, California last year.  

(UPDATE  2/2/2012 AM) Since the South Carolina primary, fling for Congressional races has concluded in West Virginia, and the next deadline is Kentucky (which was moved back to February 7). There have been no big surprises, although in North Carolina, the governor and one of the congressmen (both Democrats) decided against running for re-election. That, combined with the retirement of 30 year Republican veteran Dan Burton (R-Indiana), means that there are 35 House members (21 Democrats and 14 Republicans) not running again, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided to retire. Thus far (with Congressional qualifying completed in six states), we know that 5 seats are guaranteed to elect a Democrat, while 3 seats have already elected a Republican.

(UPDATE 2/2/2012 AM)  In conclusion, this will be a relatively quiet month, as the February Presidential contests are front and back loaded, while there are no Congressional primaries, and only four states (North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, and Pennsylvania) have filing deadlines for Congressional races.

Rarely has a Presidential primary hinged both on a news reporter’s question, as well as the word “maybe.” Yet, the combination of these two items less than 48 hours before Saturday’s balloting during the GOP debate provided the fuel for Newt Gingrich’s 40-28% victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This basically was a landslide: Romney was reduced to pluralities in three (out of 46) counties, and Saturday’s 601K voter turnout was about 33% higher than it was in the 2008 Republican primary (it’s also worth noting that the Republican primary in New Hampshire had 5% higher turnout than in 2008).

Republicans like to point out that since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has become the eventual Republican nominee. Will that be the case this year? It’s too early to tell. For one thing, the next contest will be the January 31 Florida primary. The results from this primary will arguably be a better foreshadowing of who the nominee will be, since the Florida Republican electorate is very diverse, with southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami. Needless to say, building a successful coalition requires some political finesse and a lot of money, and the Gingrich campaign needs a quick infusion of funds if it wants to be competitive in a state with numerous media markets.

UPDATE 1/23 AM There is an additional factor at play here as well: Florida is a state whose voters tend to early vote, and it is estimated that 200K early votes have already been cast  (for comparisons sake, about 2 million voted in the 2008 Presidential primary), so the fact that ballots are being cast as we speak means that any surge in support for any of the remaining candidates will not necessarily be reflected in the January 31 results. In fact, the very same Rasmussen poll released today showing Newt Gingrich with a 41-32% lead over Romney also showed that 14% of those polled have already voted, and within that group, Romney leads by 11%.

While it is important for credibility’s sake for Romney to win in Florida, there is an intangible that in the short term works in his favor: the primary calendar. Between the Florida primary and March 6 (“Super Tuesday”) seven states have contests. In 2008, Romney was an active candidate in six of those states, and he carried five of those six (the sixth state was John McCain’s Arizona). Therefore, the ability to garner support from more independent minded voters who by default will likely support Romney will be a major challenge for Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum – in a sense, the ability to gain this support will be “general election training.”

One factor which does not work in Romney’s favor: the Republican field has lost two contestants, as Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry left the race after New Hampshire. The reason this benefits Gingrich is that, despite Huntsman’s endorsing Romney, he didn’t have much of a national presence, and therefore didn’t bring much to the electoral table for Romney. Rick Perry, on the other hand, endorsed Gingrich, and his mostly Southern conservative supporters will fairly easily transfer over to Newt. This will certainly help on Super Tuesday, as four Southern states will be holding contests on that day, one of which being Texas.

At the present time, the only remaining question about the primaries is Rick Santorum’s electoral viability. While the recent endorsement of evangelicals (and his belated Iowa victory due to a recount) certainly didn’t hurt, he needs to be able to win a primary – or at a bare minimum, get a respectable percentage of the vote in upcoming contests. His third place finish in South Carolina with 17% of the vote keeps him in the race, but he has to be able to cut into Newt’s conservative support if he wants the coveted title of being the “anti Romney.”

Congressional

Even though Congressional primaries don’t commence until March 6 (in Ohio and Texas), there has been some recent action. The biggest news item was yesterday’s resignation of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-Arizona), who was shot a year ago by a mentally deranged constituent. This will necessitate an April primary and a June election for her Republican leaning seat that gave John McCain 55% of the vote.

In other news, candidate filing recently has closed in Maryland, Alabama, and Mississippi, and in those three states, there were no last minute retirements and/or unopposed candidates. One curious incident: in northern Alabama, former Congressman/party switcher Parker Griffith is seeking a rematch against the Republican who soundly defeated him in the primary.

Outside of those states, two Republican Congressman in California (which has a March 9 filing deadline) have chosen to retire, and there are rumors of additional retirements. Similarly, in New York, a ten term Democratic incumbent has decided not to seek re-election, and a six term Pennsylvania Republican recently decided not to run again.

In the upcoming weeks, Kentucky, West Virginia, and North Carolina have filing deadlines, so there may be some last minute surprises there. Overall, before a single ballot has been cast, we know the partisan composition in 8 Congressional seats: 5 seats only have Republicans running, while Democrats are guaranteed to win 3 seats based on the candidates who filed thus far. We also know that 33 House members (20 Democrats and 13 Republicans) are not returning, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided not to run again. These numbers can only increase, since as of today, candidate filing has only closed in five states.

Finally, there is a special Congressional election in Oregon on January 31 in a 61% Obama district that has been held by the Democrats since 1974. While this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome.

UPDATE 1/11 PM The New Hampshire primary has concluded, and Mitt Romney won a clear victory with 39% of the vote – this from a state that only gave him 32% of the vote and a second place showing in 2008. As with Iowa, the conservative vote remained splintered. Unlike Iowa, the New Hampshire Republican electorate is less hospitable to conservatives (particularly Southern and/or social conservatives), and as such, Romney mostly had the more moderate electorate to himself.

Did the New Hampshire primary results resolve anything? Not really, since there have thus far been no candidate withdrawals. Rick Perry only finished in New Hampshire with 1%, but he had written off New Hampshire, instead placing all his hopes on the January 21 South Carolina primary. He will have to compete against Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum (each of them got 9% in New Hampshire), however, for that conservative vote, which in the 2008 GOP primary was about 50% of the South Carolina electorate.

UPDATE 1/11 PM There are four things worth noting about the New Hampshire primary results: (1) last night’s turnout of 248K is actually above the 2008 Republican turnout of 235K, so media stories about disinterested Republican primary voters are not entirely correct, (2) the “conservative” vote of 19% (Gingrich + Santorum) is eerily similar to the 22% of New Hampshire voters who voted for conservative candidates in 2008, (3) exit polling showed that among registered Republicans, 49% supported Romney, while 25% supported Gingrich or Santorum, and (4) among Democratic primary voters, President Obama received 82%, while a write in campaign for Hillary Clinton received 10%.  This is a respectable showing, but for presidential incumbents, the bar is really high when there is no serious opposition, and as such, less than a 90+% vote indicates some discontent with the Democratic base.

Looking ahead, South Carolina has a January 21 primary, while the Florida primary is January 31. While on the surface, these would seem to be conservative southern states, “moderate” candidates received 50% of the South Carolina primary vote and 82% of the Florida primary vote. Therefore, it’s a fairly safe assumption that the more that conservative opposition to Romney is fragmented, the greater are the odds that Romney can “win” these states with pluralities. There is a subplot to these upcoming primaries: at some point (most likely South Carolina), one or more of the trio of conservative candidates opposing Romney will likely throw in the towel. Those remaining in the race will have to be well funded and/or organized if they wish to remain credible candidates, because Florida’s multiple media markets make that an expensive state to compete in, not to mention the cost of competing in multiple states starting with the February primaries/caucuses.

Congressional

Even though Congressional primaries don’t commence until March 6 in Ohio and Texas, there has been some recent action. Candidate filing is closing today in Maryland, while on Friday, filing closes in Alabama and Mississippi. While there were no surprises in Maryland (i.e., retirements and/or unopposed candidates), two Republican Congressmen in California (where filing closes on March 9) have chosen to retire, and there are rumors of more.

Overall, before a single ballot has been cast, we know the partisan composition in 8 Congressional seats: 5 seats only have Republicans running, while Democrats are guaranteed to win 3 seats based on the candidates who filed thus far. We also know that 29 House members (17 Democrats and 12 Republicans) are not returning, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided not to run again. These numbers will obviously change, since we are very early in “filing season.”

Other than that, there is a special Congressional election in Oregon on January 31 in a 61% Obama district that has been held by the Democrats since 1974. While this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome.

Now that the Iowa caucus has concluded with an eight vote “victory” for Mitt Romney, what are we to conclude from the results?  It is true that Mitt Romney “won” Iowa; however, if you look at the data, you realize that his victory was not that remarkable. For one thing, he essentially maintained his 2008 electoral position: he received almost the exact number of votes that he got in 2008, and he received the same 25% of the vote that he got in 2008. Additionally, Romney in 2008 had to compete against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani for the more moderate/liberal Republican voter demographic: in that election, 41% of Iowans voted for one of those three candidates. This time, Romney had that vote all to himself, so in a sense, his electoral position has slipped since 2008. You could also make the argument that conservative voters are more energized this time around.

Does this mean that Romney is in trouble in the upcoming caucuses/primaries? Actually, no. The primary calendar is actually his friend in January and February if you look at the percentage of the vote that went to the more moderate Republican candidates in 2008 – a vote that theoretically would be Romney’s for the taking:

New Hampshire: Romney 32%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 78%

South Carolina: Romney 15%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 50%

Florida: Romney 31%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 82%

There is another intangible that in the short term benefits Romney: a divided conservative opposition. Since he is the only candidate who can appeal to moderate and liberal Republicans, divided conservative opposition enables him to “win” with a plurality of the vote, because in the eyes of voters and the media, a win is a win is a win, and if Romney can keep “winning”, it adds fuel to the “Romney is the inevitable nominee” conventional wisdom.

This will obviously change at some point: Michele Bachmann has already withdrawn, and between Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich, only one or two in that bunch can realistically stay in the race by the time “Super Tuesday” rolls around on March 6.

UPDATED 1/5 PM The primary calendar is also Romney’s friend in February and early March, as the states holding primaries/caucuses that month were favorable to Romney in 2008 (he received 60% in Colorado and ran first; 52% in Maine and ran first; 51% in Nevada and ran first; 41% in Minnesota while running first; 39% in Minnesota while running first; 39% in Washington state while running first; and 34% in Arizona while running second against native son John McCain, who recently endorsed Romney).  Since these contests will be the only game in town before March 6, the results will be the context under which the contestants still in the race thrive or are forced out.

What about Super Tuesday? On that date (March 6), there are 12 contests, and in that bunch are Massachusetts, Ohio, and Texas.

While we have discussed at some length the primary calendar and Romney’s strengths/weaknesses, there is yet another subplot here: the extent to which Rick Santorum can withstand the inevitable scrutiny of his record, as prior GOP “frontrunners” have plummeted as quickly as they have soared in the polls as a result of this scrutiny.

Congressional

While the Republican Presidential contest is occurring, the stage for the 2012 Congressional elections is starting to take shape as well. Congressional filing has concluded in Illinois and Ohio, and next week, filing will conclude in Alabama, Maryland, and Mississippi. In Illinois and Ohio, we know of two Congressmen (one Democrat and a Republican) who are retiring, and based on the candidates who filed, Republicans are guaranteed 5 seats, while Democrats are guaranteed 3 seats in the partisan composition of the House.

UPDATED 1/11 AM Even though congressional/statewide primary contests do not commence until March 6 in Ohio and Texas, there is a Congressional special election that will be held on January 31 in Oregon. Democrats have held this seat since 1974, and Barack Obama received 61% of the vote here in 2008. But while this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome. And, of course, this will be yet another race where we will be watching the “Obama plunge” (explained here)

Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided.

From the Republican point of view, a Republican victory in a heavily Jewish seat in New York City, as well as a sweep of Louisiana and Mississippi elections, combined with the capture of four legislative chambers (both houses in Louisiana and Mississippi) and a tie in the Virginia Senate, give them a good feeling about elections this year. Plus, Ohio voters clearly showed their disapproval of the individual mandate that is a cornerstone feature of Obamacare.

Looking Forward

The “tie breaker” will be the federal, state, and local elections to be held next year. Election 2012 has several layers to it, and we will be covering it accordingly:

Presidential: in the near term, Republicans have to pick a nominee to challenge President Obama next fall. While Mitt Romney is the presumed front runner, his poll position has been static, while those opposed to his candidacy have not yet coalesced behind a candidate and stayed there for long. That will change once we get into the thick of the Presidential primaries.

Statewide: This time, only 11 states are holding gubernatorial elections. Democrats hold an 8-3 lead with this group of elected officials, although several of the statehouses held by Democrats (North Carolina, Washington, Montana) appear to be shaky;

Senate: While the Democrats have a 53-47 lead in that chamber, 23 out of 33 Senate seats up this year are held by Democrats, and the picture is further complicated by the fact that 6 out of 8 Senate retirements are Democrats. Combine that with embattled incumbents like Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) who may retire, and the Democrats have their work cut out for them. Especially since only Republican (Scott Brown of Massachusetts) is anywhere near vulnerable;

House: Republicans have a 242-193 lead in that chamber. There are 26 House members who have decided to retire, and 17 of those 26 are Democrats. You also have additional turmoil that will come from redistricting. The story about these races will gradually be told as we know who is running or retiring, and after primaries have been held;

In the near future, Presidential season will be front and center, with four primaries/caucuses in January. Iowa has its caucus on January 3, and New Hampshire’s primary is on January 10.  Filing deadlines are looming in several states as well, and we will be watching to see if there are any additional retirements. Illinois’ filing deadline is December 27, while Maryland’s is January 11.

Below are maps showing the primary dates for the first few months, as well as upcoming filing deadlines.

Red = January, Pink = February, Yellow = March

Red = December, Pink = January, Yellow = February

Overall, Republicans had a respectable year, but Democrats demonstrated in multiple instances that they were and are still capable of winning elections when they decide to compete. In the Senate, the partisan balance was established after the October primary, and is 24 Republicans and 15 Democrats, for a gain of two Republicans (both pickups came from term limited Democrats). In the House, the Republicans netted a one seat gain (two of their incumbents lost in partisan contests), and that chamber will have 58 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents. What are we to take from last night’s results?

(1) Despite Republican dreams of legislative supermajorities, Democrats are still capable of generating a healthy turnout, and it was this turnout that arguably helped elect Democrats in House races from Minden to Natchitoches to Lafayette;

(2) Therefore, efforts to target Democrats need to be done with more finesse – while a district’s preference in statewide races indicates pickup opportunities, the basics still matter: candidate recruitment is crucial, as is the campaign messaging. And ultimately, the fact that Republicans left seats on the table this year is not necessarily a bad thing for them, because those seats will open up through retirements, resignations, and/or term limits – in 14 legislative districts (12 in the House and 2 in the Senate), Senator David Vitter received at least 55% of the vote – those seats under the right circumstances can be GOP pickups in the future;

(3) Term limits are perhaps weeding out weaker incumbents before they become electorally vulnerable: only one Senate incumbent (Shreveport Democrat Lydia Jackson) was defeated, while four House incumbents lost;

(4) The black caucus has again benefitted from reapportionment – it now has 9 senators (an increase of 1) and 23 representatives (an increase of 3). And equally as important, the “New Orleans influence” within this caucus will be weaker when the new legislature convenes, as you now have additional black legislators coming from places like Ruston, LaPlace, and Monroe;

(5) Finally, we noticed in BESE races that there is a new dimension to races in black majority districts – the role that white voters can now play in choosing the winner. This newfound electoral muscle made itself apparent in two Senate runoffs. In Acadiana, embattled incumbent Elbert Lee Guillory (D-Opelousas) was able to win with 56% of the vote by assembling a diverse coalition that included 83% of St Landry Parish whites, 65% of Lafayette Parish whites, and 49% of St Landry Parish blacks (he only received 28% of the black vote in Lafayette/St Martin Parishes). In other words, without the white “bloc vote”, Cravins would have won. Up in Shreveport, former (he served from 1983-2003) state senator Greg Tarver ended Lydia Jackson’s career by getting 51% of the black vote and 64% of the white vote – the endorsements Tarver received from Republican elected officials certainly made a difference.

While this marks the end of the 2011 season, a new political era in Louisiana has begun: one where Republicans are competitive, and one where assembling multiracial coalitions is the key to victory regardless of the party affiliation or the ideology of the officeholder.

We had noted after the primary that BESE races were a continual source of frustration for conservatives and/or education reformers, as their candidates usually could not compete against a formidable coalition of populist Democratic voters that included blacks, teachers unions, and those connected to state or local governments.

In 2011, the business community, with Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby as their quarterback, decided to invest their resources in the BESE races. These efforts were met with success: in the October primary, three incumbents were defeated, and three more races went into a runoff. The reformers’ similarly scored a clean sweep in the runoff elections, as their candidates (one Republican and two black Democrats) defeated their opponents, who were strongly supported by the teachers unions.

What makes these victories notable was that, for once, the teachers unions had very little clout in the broader black community outside of the traditional black power structure. The most notable example of this was in District 8 (which covers territory between Baton Rouge and Lafayette), where political newcomer Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat) received 58% of the runoff vote. The way she achieved this victory was a good case study of the rise of new political coalitions.

In the primary, Hill faced three opponents. One (Domoine Rutledge) was supported by the teachers unions and traditional black political leaders. Another (Russell Armstrong) was co endorsed by the business lobby. There was also a white Independent named Jimmy Guillory. In the past, the result would have been preordained: Rutledge would have faced Guillory in the runoff, and Rutledge would have then received 55-60% of the runoff vote (about 60% of the voters are black).

That’s not what happened in this race. In the primary, Carolyn Hill built a multiracial coalition of moderate black politicians and Christian conservatives. This, combined with the co endorsement of the main business group, enabled her to garner 20% of the white vote and 33% of the black vote in the primary. Rutledge actually ran last, despite his  support from unions/most black political leaders, as he only received 36% of the black vote and 9% of the white vote. In the runoff, Hill was able to expand her base with white voters by getting an impressive 33% of that voter bloc. Because she was not the preferred choice of traditional black political organizations/politicians, she only received 80% of the black vote (historically, blacks in contested races against a white candidate received at least 90% of the black vote). This is an impressive coalition she assembled, because this district historically was a populist union/Democratic stronghold.

The black electorate exhibited similar independence in the BESE race for the black majority district in New Orleans/the River Parishes, although in this case, two black Democrats made the runoff. While the incumbent, Louella Givens, had the support of the teachers unions, she had the baggage of a 1.3 million dollar tax lien on her house and a DWI arrest, while her opponent, Teach For America executive Kira Orange Jones, had the endorsements of Senator Mary Landrieu, retiring Senate President Joel Chaisson, and several other black elected officials. In the primary, Jones actually led 39-31% by essentially running even in the black community (she trailed only 36-37% against Givens) and amassing an impressive 63-14% lead with the white vote. This coalition enabled Jones to defeat the incumbent 57-43% in the runoff, which was attained by Jones’ getting 71% of the white vote and 44% of the black vote.

The reformers’ third victory was in District 6 (Baton Rouge/the Florida Parishes), where first term Republican incumbent (and the ringleader of the reformers) Chas Roemer scored a 57-43% win over Donald Songy, who had the wholehearted endorsement of the teachers unions. This victory was not unexpected, however, as there were Republican votes to spare – Vitter carried this district 68-26% last year.

In conclusion, the BESE races were noteworthy for two reasons: (1) education reform (in terms of charter schools, school choice, performance grading of schools, and the like) is an issue that both unites the disparate elements of the conservative bloc and separates a black voters from the teachers unions; (2) the old political paradigm of black candidates’ only being electorally viable if they have the express consent of the network of ministers and politicians has been discredited. Ironically, this is an unintended consequence of the creation of more “majority minority” districts – these new districts now have a significant minority of white voters whose votes now must be sought by black politicians if they want to win. Carolyn Hill and Kira Orange Jones clearly recognized this new electoral reality, while their opponents did not.

In the next installment, we will discuss the legislative races. Below is the map of BESE districts in effect for the 2011 elections.

BESE Districts

Certainly no one had a better night than Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby. And for good reason: three incumbents were defeated, and three more races were pushed into a runoff. Historically, BESE has been one of those elected offices that not only got little attention (they share the ballot with statewide and legislative races), but was a continual source of frustration for conservatives, as Democrats allied with teachers unions historically dominated these races – Republicans weren’t even elected to the BESE board until 2003, and it wasn’t until 2007 that they even seriously contested a majority of the seats.

There were two reasons for this: (1) Because BESE is an unpaid position, not many people other than teachers unions and educational administrators used to care about who sat on the board, (2) until 2011, the business community didn’t pay much attention to those races.

That changed this year when construction contractor Lane Grigsby (whose mantra is “get into politics or get out of business”), decided to get involved, because of his belief that the public education system in Louisiana was broken. His involvement in this (and other races in the past) was no laughing matter: last year, for example, he provided the resources to help knock three incumbents off the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board. His motivation is simple: he goes after incumbents who he believes “don’t understand they’re supposed to be public servants.” That, combined with his desire to end teacher tenure (he noted that “it’s ten times harder to fire a teacher than it is for a lawyer to lose their license.”) motivated him into the BESE arena.

How did he do? In a board of 8 elected members (an additional 3 are appointed), only two incumbents were re-elected. One (recent party convert Walter Lee of Shreveport) was unopposed, while favorable incumbent Jim Garvey (R-Metairie) was re-elected in the primary with 58% of the vote. Each of the remaining six districts has its own story to tell:

BESE Districts

Defeated Incumbents:

In District 3 (south Louisiana between New Orleans and Lafayette), Democratic incumbent Glenny Lee Buquet lost 56-44% to Republican Lottie Beebe, despite the fact that Governor Jindal supported the Democratic incumbent. What happened? In this case, we believe it was Buquet’s Democratic Party label. In the two parishes (Terrebonne and Lafourche) that were most familiar with the incumbent, Buquet received 55% of the vote. In the rest of the district, 62% favored the Republican challenger. Since this is an area where the oil industry is a vital part of the economy, we believe that the drilling moratorium, and the resultant drop off in terms of Democratic Party identity, contributed to this large Republican vote. There was another contributing factor to Buquet’s defeat: even though the district is 20% black by voter registration, black turnout was significantly lower, and the Republican challenger got 19% of the black vote.

District 5 covers northeast Louisiana, and in this case, freshman Democrat Keith Guice lost 55-45% to Republican Jay Guillot – Guice was one of Grigsby’s targets. The demographics behind Guillot’s victory are just as fascinating: despite Guice having a base in the Republican stronghold of Ouachita Parish (he received 49% in a parish where Democrats are lucky to get 40%) and several rural parishes near Alexandria, Guillot was bolstered by a 58% vote out of Rapides Parish (Alexandria) and a strong vote in most of the rural parishes. It also didn’t hurt that Guillot got 14% of the black vote, and their turnout intensity was roughly half that of whites (white turnout was 37%, while black turnout was 20%).

District 7 covers southwest Louisiana, and in this case, you had a 12 year Democratic incumbent (Dale Bayard) quietly switch parties earlier this year, despite his being considered favorable to teachers unions. Nevertheless, he was another Grigsby target, and Republican political newcomer Holly Boffy soundly defeated Bayard 67-33%. Not only did Boffy carry every parish, but she even prevailed 63-37% in Bayard’s home parish of Calcasieu (Lake Charles).

Runoffs:

District 2 is one of two black majority districts. The district includes New Orleans and some of the River Parishes. Two term incumbent Louella Givens (who herself defeated an incumbent in 2003) trailed challenger Kira Orange Jones 39-31%. Jones, who sported the endorsements of Senator (and New Orleans native) Mary Landrieu and the Alliance for Good Government, also was helped by the legal and tax problems of Givens (she had a DWI arrest and a 1.3 million dollar tax lien placed on her house). This is an interesting exhibition of the black community’s growing independence from the teachers unions, who lined up behind Givens. Givens had a tepid 37-36% lead in the black precincts (a slightly larger 41-33% in New Orleans), while with the white vote, Jones led 63-14%. Givens is in trouble in the runoff.

District 8 is the second black majority district that includes the black communities in Baton Rouge and Lafayette, as well as some rural parishes with a significant black population. This was an open seat, and four candidates (three of whom are black) ran. Despite the fact that Domoine Rutledge (attorney for the EBR School System) had the support of the teachers unions, he finished last with 21%. Making the runoff were Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat who is a certified social worker and is pro school reform) and Independent Jimmy Guillory. This was an interesting race because Hill ran without the support of teachers unions and traditional black political groups; instead, she built a biracial coalition. She is in a strong position for the runoff.

Finally, the champion of reform was incumbent Republican Chas Roemer (District 6 incumbent), who was strongly backed by Grigsby. Though forced into a runoff with a 45-29% lead over Democrat Donald Songy, the remaining 26% of the voters supported a Republican, and Roemer only needs a fraction of that vote to win. In fact, his runoff strategy is simple: (1) add to his already large 56-26% lead over Songy in East Baton Rouge Parish (not too tough to do, since the East Baton Rouge precincts in the district are 14% black), (2) consolidate the Republican vote in the suburban/rural parishes along I-12, where Roemer only led 38-25% (the other Republican received the remaining 36%).

In conclusion, there were several interesting features about the BESE races this year: (1) without a contested governor’s race to distract voters, the conservative nature of Louisianians finally made itself apparent in these races, (2) the fact that pro school choice/educational reform candidates had the resources to compete for the first time, and (3) the reality (apparent from the data) that blacks are no longer a rock solid part of the traditional Democratic coalition (unions, government employees, blacks, and trial lawyers) in Louisiana, and in fact are receptive to reform minded candidates.

We had noted before that there was a sense that the Louisiana Democratic Party, which as recently as 2005 controlled every statewide office, would be irrelevant in this year’s political climate.  And Republican legislative victories in areas that once gave Edwin Edwards over 70% of the vote, combined with a deluge of party switches in the wake of the 2010 elections, added to that prevailing wisdom. This was the political context for the aggressive targeting from  Senator Vitter and Governor Jindal of Democratic open seats and/or incumbent Democratic legislators. Additionally, the TEA Party targeted Republican legislators they thought were not sufficiently conservative. Were they successful?

Senate

In the Louisiana Senate, no incumbent Democrat was defeated outside of reapportionment (although two term incumbent Ben Nevers of Bogalusa was held to 51%). And for that matter, no incumbent Republican legislator was defeated either, despite the efforts of the TEA Party. In fact, the closest Republican race was that of two term incumbent Bob Kostelka, who was held to 52%, even though the TEA Party was not explicitly involved in that race.

From a partisan perspective, the balance in the Senate is set now at 24 Republicans and 15 Democrats. There are four runoffs remaining: two are in black district districts in Shreveport and Lafayette/Opelousas where former incumbents are seeking a comeback. A third runoff is in a newly created black majority district in the River Parishes. The final runoff is a Republican on Republican race along the Texas border where an incumbent backed by Governor Jindal faces the former occupant of the seat. Though the district gave 76% of the vote to Governor Jindal, the balance of power is in the 25% who voted for the Democrat, so this will be an interesting runoff to watch.

House

The partisan picture is less clear in the House. Just like the Senate, no incumbent of either party lost outside of reapportionment, even though the Republicans targeted several Democratic seats. As of right now, 49 Republicans have been elected (a majority is 53 out of 105 members), as have 34 Democrats and an Independent (“Dee” Richard of Thibodaux). If you include the 21 runoffs where you have Republican/Republican or Democrat/Democrat races, the partisan balance becomes 54 Republicans, 41 Democrats, and an Independent. Depending on the outcome of the runoffs, you are looking at a Republican delegation of between 54 and 62 Republicans (the current breakdown is 57 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents).

Looking ahead

Even though the GOP’s targeting efforts did not seem to produce the windfall they hoped for (arguably, party switchers removed most of the “low hanging fruit”), the GOP still has time on their side: their best strategy is to use term limits and/or vacated Democratic seats as their source of additional legislative seats. For instance, Senator Ben Nevers (D-Bogalusa) was re-elected with 51% of the vote, and his district voted 66-28% for David Vitter. He is term limited in 2015. His seat should be the Republicans’ top priority, particularly since his district contains parts of St Tammany and Tangipahoa that are seeing a steady influx of decidedly Republican residents from Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

On the House side, there are three GOP favorable seats whose Democratic incumbents are term limited: Jim Fannin (D-Jonesboro), Mickey Guillory (D-Eunice), and Harold Ritchie (D-Bogalusa). All three of these districts gave David Vitter over 60% of the vote and should be the Republicans’ top priority for pickups.

Enter the black Republicans

As a final thought, six black Republicans ran for legislative seats. How did they fare ? While none of them were elected (or even made the runoff), their performance last night was promising: all got between 14 and 26% of the vote, and if you allow for the fact that a house district in Baton Rouge had two black Republicans running, that district gave 30% of its vote to a black Republican. So while the efforts seem fruitless this year, this is light years ahead of 2007, when three black Republicans ran for the legislature, and all received between 8 and 12% of the vote. In other words, by the time the next reapportionment election comes around (and maybe even before that), black Republicans will be viable politically in Louisiana.

In the interest of space, we will discuss in the next installment the BESE races and how Baton  Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby is someone who has established himself on the political scene by accomplishing something that has continually eluded conservative/business interests in the past.