The “Obama Plunge” – what is it ?

In several major elections held since “cap and trade” passed the U.S. House last summer, we have noted a considerable dropoff in Democratic support relative to the levels of support Barack Obama received in his 2008 Presidential race. We believe this dropoff (aka, the “Obama plunge”) can be used to evaluate the electoral prospects of Democratic congressional candidates […]

The U.S. House “deems” the 2011 budget as passed

Part One: Vote to raise the national debt ceiling Elections (past, present, and future) have consequences. Back in February, we noted that the upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts sent a psychological shock wave to some Democrats who were beginning to get “cold feet” politically after tough votes on legislation like the stimulus, […]

(Trivial) midterm election statistics

41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30) 26 – states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18) 52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements) 5 […]

2010 Elections, June 22 edition (South Carolina makes history)

Utah Primary, North Carolina/South Carolina Runoffs Tonight, history was made in South Carolina. For the GOP runoff for Governor, state representative Nikki Haley (who is of Indian descent) benefitted in the primary from a backlash against racial slurs used against her (she was referred to as a “rag head”), as well as unproven allegations that she was […]