Recently, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies polled 1030 likely voters between June 10-13. The poll showed a healthy 51-31% lead for David Vitter. A few notes about the internals:
Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria:
Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective
If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.
This upcoming Tuesday will be one of two “Super Super Tuesdays” between now and the November elections (the other will be on September 14). Ten states will be holding primaries, while Georgia is holding an all Republican Congressional special election, and Arkansas is holding runoff elections. Below are the major races we will […]
Tonight, special election runoffs were held in two state House districts in Baton Rouge and one in New Orleans. In both of these all Democratic runoffs, the more moderate/less controversial candidate won.
We have been discussing the Hawaii special election for some time as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Republican Charles Djou (who served on the Honolulu City Council) has won with 40% of the vote. Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who was endorsed by the Hawaii Democratic organization, finished second with 31% of the vote, […]