Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Party primaries can predict the future. Back in August 2010, a U.S. Senate primary in Louisiana attracted 110K Democrats and Independents (in that election, Independents were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary), and the results showed that Democrats and Independents were not solidly behind former Congressman Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville), who [...]
As of this morning, 12 states have held their primaries (note: Arkansas and Kentucky are holding primaries today), while Congressional filing has concluded in 34 states. Since the Presidential election is barely more than five months away, we thought this was a good time to start keeping score for the fall elections.
In the first installment, we had discussed the basics of polling and how to go about evaluating a poll. In this installment, we will “grade” the pollsters, using the 2010 midterm elections as our sample data.
2012 promises to be a busy election year for the various federal, state, and local offices on the ballot this year. Part of that activity includes yard signs, political commercials, bumper stickers, and public opinion polls to be conducted for races big and small.
Congressional Current Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 44-43% Republican Prior Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 42-40% Republican The anti-incumbent wave which in 2010 cost 63 Congressmen (7 in the primary and 56 on Election Day) their jobs showed no signs of abating after last night’s primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and [...]