Archive | May, 2012

Decision 2012 – Primary problems for President Obama ?

Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Party primaries can predict the future. Back in August 2010, a U.S. Senate primary in Louisiana attracted 110K Democrats and Independents (in that election, Independents were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary), and the results showed that Democrats and Independents were not solidly behind former Congressman Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville), who [...]

Decision 2012 – JMCEL scorecard as of May 22

As of this morning, 12 states have held their primaries (note: Arkansas and Kentucky are holding primaries today), while Congressional filing has concluded in 34 states. Since the Presidential election is barely more than five months away, we thought this was a good time to start keeping score for the fall elections.

Decision 2012 (May 8 Indiana/North Carolina/West Virginia primaries – a bad day to be an incumbent)

Congressional Current Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 44-43% Republican Prior Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 42-40% Republican The anti-incumbent wave which in 2010 cost 63 Congressmen (7 in the primary and 56 on Election Day) their jobs showed no signs of abating after last night’s primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and [...]