Decision 2012 (February 29 edition)

Presidential

(1144 delegates to win) Romney 163, Santorum 83, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 19, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)

President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)

Presidential Contest 2/29 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

The ever changing Republican Presidential contest has now swung back to Mitt Romney, although not as decisively as he may have hoped. Despite the apparent inconsistency of the Republican contest, however, battle lines within the Republican Party have begun to form in terms of patterns of support each candidate has, which we think will be apparent in each remaining contest. Romney has become the candidate of more affluent white collar suburbs and moderate/liberal Republicans, while Santorum is getting his support from rural and/or blue collar areas, and Newt Gingrich’s appeal is the most potent in areas with a significant number of native Southerners. Let’s recap last night’s two contests through this prism: [...]

Decision 2012 (February 23 edition)

Presidential -

 (1144 delegates to win) Romney 123, Santorum 72, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 19, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)

President Obama Job Approval 48-48% (14 day rolling average)

Presidential Contest 2/23 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

Ever since the “mini Tuesday” Presidential contests of Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, the Presidential race has been relatively quiet. The Maine caucuses did conclude shortly thereafter, and while Romney eked out a narrow 39-36% victory over Ron Paul, this was, comparatively speaking, not an impressive victory for Romney. He carried Maine 51-18% over Ron Paul in 2008 (John McCain received 21%). One small consolation for the Republicans: turnout was 20% higher than it was in the 2008 caucuses. [...]

Decision 2012 (February 8 edition)

Presidential - (1144 delegates to win) Romney 107, Santorum 45, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 9, Huntsman 2, Perry 2

Presidential Contest (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

The Republican Presidential contest is back to square one, so to speak.  Despite the fact that three of the four contests held this past week were in states Mitt Romney carried in his 2008 Presidential quest, he only managed to carry Nevada, and even then, he essentially matched his 2008 showing. [...]

Decision 2012 (February 1 edition)

Presidential

Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets. [...]