One of the most misunderstood areas of election analysis is the impact that turnout intensity (or lack thereof) can have on a race. For Louisiana elections, turnout intensity is most noticeable when you look at the extent to which whites and blacks vote. One of the oldest truisms in Louisiana electoral politics is that whites [...]
In our previous installment, we analyzed the twin victories for the GOP in two special Congressional elections. In both cases, the “Obama plunge” (explained here) resurfaced – it was a 9 point plunge in New York, while in Nevada, the plunge was 13 points. These types of dilutions in Democratic support, if they continue, will [...]
Tonight was a very good night for the Republicans, as they were victorious in Congressional special elections that were held both in New York and Nevada. The New York race was nothing short of an upset of Scott Brown proportions, so we will focus on that race today.
In our previous installment, we had noted the onset of Louisiana election season, as well as the fact that Democrats had written off a special House election in Nevada, while getting more nervous about their chances in a special election for a House seat in New York City.
Candidate filing has concluded in Louisiana. This was the first year in history that Democrats largely stayed away. So what happened?
The second day of filing has concluded (the deadline to file is 5PM tomorrow). Most of the remaining “holdouts” among the incumbents did end up filing today, and some more challengers filed today as well. Overall, however, the pace was considerably slower than yesterday (40 candidates for statewide legislative office filed today, as opposed to [...]
The first day of filing concluded, and nearly all incumbents who were supposed to qualify did so, although there were a fair number of challengers who filed today as well.
One of the biggest mistakes a candidate can make is to be unaware of external events that may distract voters from the candidate’s attempt to reach them. One of those external events is football season. Therefore, we have examined the football schedules of the New Orleans Saints, LSU, and Southern, so that we can see [...]
In our previous installment, we noted that Mississippi has decided on its Democratic nominee for Governor, while in Wisconsin, the two Democrats up for recall survived the recall elections, thus leaving the Wisconsin Senate at 17-16 Republican.
Once Labor Day is over, candidate qualifying begins Tuesday morning, and continues until 5PM Thursday afternoon. Up for election this fall are all (1) all statewide elected officials (Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, etc.), (2) all 144 legislative seats, (3) the state education board (also known as BESE), and (5) local and parish wide [...]