2010 Elections, 9/30 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

With the exception of a Republican Congressional runoff (and other statewide and local races as well) this Saturday in Louisiana, we are now in the thick of election season.  In fact, early voting has already commenced in seven states, and more states will be joining in throughout October.  Accordingly, the amount of polling released has accelerated. While presently we are basing our analyses on a composite of polls conducted over the last 14 days, subsequent analyses performed between now and Election Day will be with a 7 day lookback period. Our rankings are based on the following criteria: [...]

A “spin free” projection of GOP Senate gains

How many Senate seats will the GOP gain this fall ? Can the GOP retake the Senate ? And which seats are likely to flip ? Unlike our discussion of House gains, there has been a decent volume of polling in nearly all of the Senate races, with some races having several polls done each week by different polling organizations. The Senate also differs from the House in a very major way in that not all seats are up for re-election this year. Typically, a third of the seats are up in any given election cycle, but this year, we have an unusually large number (37) of seats up for re-elections, because (1) not only did President Obama and Vice President Biden come from the Senate, but they also chose sitting senators for two Cabinet positions: Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State and Ken Salazar for Secretary of the Interior, and (2) the untimely death of Robert Byrd of West Virginia created the need for a special election. [...]

Early Voting in Louisiana concludes for the October primary…….

Louisiana’s primaries (which include the Lt Governor’s race, a Republican Congressional runoff, and various local races) are now less than a week away. Early voting has concluded, although mail in/faxed ballots will still be accepted up until Friday. We kept track of the early voting numbers, and what we’ve noticed so far is as follows: [...]

2010 Elections, 9/23 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

We are now in the thick of election season. Hawaii’s primary held last Saturday concludes 2010’s primary season, and we are now seeing polling released at an accelerated pace (Louisiana’s “everything else” primary will be next Saturday, October 2, and early voting concludes tomorrow). We presently are basing our analyses on a composite of polls conducted over the last 14 days. Next month, we will compress that “look back period” to 7 days,  because as early voting begins in Ohio next week, voters will begin to make up their minds, and polls will start moving accordingly. Our rankings are based on the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – In the Hawaii Senate race, polling data has not been publicly released, so we have nothing to analyze there.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black) [...]

More November foreshadowing from the Mississippi Delta

Throughout this election cycle, we have seen polls conducted for various races across the country that show that scores of Democrats are in trouble. What about Congressional races closer to home ? [...]

A “spin free” projection of GOP House gains

How many House seats will the GOP gain this fall ? And which seats are likely to flip ? In general, there has been little specific discussion about this topic, other than political commentators’ giving various estimates, with little in the way of supporting data. In this article, we would like to, using publicly available data, report how we think the race for the House stands right now. [...]

2010 Elections, 9/16 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Now that “Super Tuesday II” has come and gone, all but Hawaii have chosen their Congressional nominees (Louisiana’s “everything else” primary will be on Saturday, October 2, and early voting starts this Saturday). We are now basing our analyses on a composite of polls conducted over the last 14 days. Next month, we will compress this “look back period” to 7 days, since the tempo of campaigning will pick up even more in the last few weeks. Our rankings are based on the following criteria: [...]

“Super Tuesday II” Results – Two for the TEA Party

Tonight, seven states held their primaries. Overall, the TEA Party had two big victories over establishment candidates in Republican primaries. And healthcare reform’s unpopularity was apparent again. [...]

2010 Primary Season statistics

With primary season winding down, there are two things we wanted to show you graphically: (1) The primary vote by party by state, and (2) Current list of House races we’re watching. [...]

Senate and Governor’s Races – Then and Now