2010 Elections, 8/17 edition (the “Obama Plunge” reaches Washington)

Tonight, two states (Washington and Wyoming) held their primaries. In Wyoming, the only race of note was a crowded Republican primary for Governor, which was a proxy battle between the establishment (former President George H.W. Bush endorsed former state House speaker Collin Simpson, the son of a former senator) and the insurgents (Sarah Palin endorsed state auditor Rita Meyer). The complete but unofficial returns show Palin’s choice lost by 700 votes (Wyoming does not have runoffs, and Meyer has conceded), but the establishment choice finished 4th with 16% of the vote. [...]

It’s (Congressional) Election Season in Louisiana !

The effect of the “Obama plunge” on House elections

The big unanswered question of the 2010 elections is: will the Republicans recapture the House, the Senate, or both ? Currently, the House is controlled by the Democrats 256-179, while the Senate is controlled by the Democrats by a 59-41 margin. Since most of the information about this subject on either side of the political spectrum is colored with a considerable amount of spin, we’ve decided to perform the analysis ourselves using a combination of theory and “real world” data to quantify those gains. In this article, we’re focusing on the House of Representatives. [...]

2010 Elections, 8/12 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded in mid September) using the following criteria: [...]

2010 elections, 8/11 edition (President Obama finally wins one)

There are two ways of looking at last night’s results. There is the point of view already being trumpeted by the Washington establishment that “Primary night yields good news for Obama, Dems.” There is, however, still the reality that in the 22 states where both parties had contested primaries, 54% of primary voters have chosen a Republican ballot. Furthermore, the “good news for Obama” was that after seeing endorsed candidate after endorsed candidate go down to defeat, President Obama finally had one of his endorsed candidates win a Democratic primary. Finally, four of the “top of the ballot” races were decided by less than 5% of the vote. [...]

2010 Elections, 8/5 version

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded in mid September) using the following criteria: [...]

2010 elections, 8/4 version (three primaries, two close calls, and another House incumbent loses)

After a relatively quiet month, the gauntlet of primaries has returned. For the next six weeks, there remaining 22 primaries will be held, with primaries nearly every week (Louisiana holds its Congressional primaries on August 28 and its “regular” primary on October 2). Tonight, Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri held its primaries. [...]