One of the features of any election cycle are the numerous polls conducted. These polls paint a narrative about how well a candidate or party is performing at a point in time or over time. And despite the fact that we love to complain about the undue influence of polls, it’s the “horse race” aspect to it that makes polls so popular, especially if “your side” is winning or coming from behind. [...]
2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races
Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria:
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As this article is being written, Election Day is 14 weeks away. The predominant chatter among political pundits is not whether there will be Republican gains, but the extent of those gains, and whether those gains can produce a Republican wave large enough to enable them to retake the House, the Senate, or both houses of Congress (which the Republicans did in 1994 and the Democrats did in 2006). However, speculation about the ultimate outcome can lead to unrealistic hopes. We would therefore like to use the 1994 landslide (and its effect on the composition of the U.S. Senate) to assess the extent to which conditions present in 1994 can be replicated in this year’s elections. [...]
2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races
Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria: [...]
Primary and Filing Status
Last night, Georgia conducted its party primaries. Its incumbent Democrats were re-elected with varying percentages. At the top of the ticket, former governor Roy Barnes was one of several ex governors (the others are in California, Iowa, Maryland, and Oregon) who want their old job back. Democratic primary voters agreed, giving him a solid 66-22% primary victory. What makes this comeback so remarkable is that Barnes was defeated in 2002 in an upset after a single term in office, becoming the first Democratic governor in Georgia to lose to a Republican since Reconstruction. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Secretary of State Karen Handel helped put her into the August 10 runoff against former Congressman (and former Democrat) Nathan Deal – she led 34-23%. [...]
The conventional wisdom is that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a shoo in for the Lt Governor’s race. We would like to test that assumption by examining the strengths/weaknesses of the major candidates running in this race and projecting their vote totals on a parish by parish basis to predict the overall primary results. [...]
Primary and Filing Status
On the primary front, it has been relatively quiet this month. The Alabama runoff has been the only election held since June 22, and it provided yet another example of voters (in this case, in the Republican runoff for governor) choosing someone other than the preferred candidate of the local political establishment, by an unambiguous 56-44% margin. [...]
2010 Election Predictions - How we rank individual races (revised criteria)
Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “lookback period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria: [...]
Several months ago, we noted that the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board (which excludes the breakaway school districts of Baker, Zachary, and Central) adopted a new redistricting plan that reduced its membership from 12 to 11 members. The close of candidate filing today represents the first time EBR School Board members will be running under the 11 district plan. [...]
Candidate filing has closed in Louisiana for the 2010 elections. There were a significant number of last minute qualifiers, so we are providing a summary, as well as a list of qualifiers: [...]
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