(Trivial) midterm election statistics

41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30)

26 - states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18)

52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements)

5 – Congressional incumbents who have been defeated in their own primaries (3 Democrats, 2 Republicans- the recent record was set in 1992, with 15 retirements)

764 - years of seniority lost from Congressional retirements and/or defeats

2010 Elections, June 22 edition (South Carolina makes history)

Utah Primary, North Carolina/South Carolina Runoffs

Tonight, history was made in South Carolina. For the GOP runoff for Governor, state representative Nikki Haley (who is of Indian descent) benefitted in the primary from a backlash against racial slurs used against her (she was referred to as a “rag head”), as well as unproven allegations that she was involved in two extramarital affairs. She led in the GOP primary 49-22% over Congressmen Gresham Barrett, who was booed at a recent Tea Party rally for his support of TARP.  Despite GOP attempts to get Barrett to withdraw, he contested the runoff and in the end was inundated by Haley 65-35%. [...]

Midterm Elections Halftime Report/June 22 primary preview

Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House (Version 2.0) ?

In a previous posting, we used the following criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not: [...]

Louisiana Senate Race Poll

Recently, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies polled 1030 likely voters between June 10-13. The poll showed a healthy 51-31% lead for David Vitter. A few notes about the internals: [...]

Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House ?

Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains

Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria: [...]

Three Thoughts about Congressional Turnover

Congressional Turnover

Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective [...]

What did “Super Tuesday” tell us ?

If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out. [...]

“Super Tuesday” (June 8) Primary Preview

States (in pink) with primary/runoff elections

 

 This upcoming Tuesday will be one of two “Super Super Tuesdays” between now and the November elections (the other will be on September 14). Ten states will be holding primaries, while Georgia is holding an all Republican Congressional special election, and Arkansas is holding runoff elections. Below are the major races we will be watching Tuesday night: [...]

2010 Elections, June 1 Edition (A fourth incumbent loses)

Scorecard - 

[...]