41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30) 26 - states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18) 52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements) 5 [...]
Utah Primary, North Carolina/South Carolina Runoffs Tonight, history was made in South Carolina. For the GOP runoff for Governor, state representative Nikki Haley (who is of Indian descent) benefitted in the primary from a backlash against racial slurs used against her (she was referred to as a “rag head”), as well as unproven allegations that she was [...]
As of today, 25 states have held primaries, and Congressional filing has concluded in 41 states. There will be some more interesting races this upcoming Tuesday, when North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah hold elections. We are particularly interested in South Carolina and Utah.
In a previous posting, we used the following criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not:
Recently, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies polled 1030 likely voters between June 10-13. The poll showed a healthy 51-31% lead for David Vitter. A few notes about the internals:
Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria:
Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective
If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.
This upcoming Tuesday will be one of two “Super Super Tuesdays” between now and the November elections (the other will be on September 14). Ten states will be holding primaries, while Georgia is holding an all Republican Congressional special election, and Arkansas is holding runoff elections. Below are the major races we will [...]