2010 – The Year Of the Landslide ?

Introduction

As the fall elections get closer, we’ve been analyzing the likely outcome based on available data like an incumbent’s voting record on controversial items (the stimulus, “cap and trade”, and healthcare reform), his/her 2008 re-election percentage, and the level of support for Barack Obama in those districts. This analysis has been performed while considering the presence of the “Obama Plunge” (a fairly consistent 12-15% drop-off in Democratic support since the “cap and trade” vote in the House last summer). As a result of these factors, we currently forecast a GOP gain of 79 seats in the House  and eight seats in the Senate. [...]

More on the “Obama Plunge”

The upset election of Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy seemed to be further confirmation of what we described in this post as the “Obama plunge.” This term referred to our belief that the percentage of the vote Barack Obama and/or Democratic Congressional candidates received in 2008 was a high water mark for Democrats, and that there has been a consistent decline of 12-15% in Democratic performance since that election – particularly after the “cap and trade” vote that was taken in the House last summer. [...]

Aftermath of the 3/21 healthcare vote in the U.S. House

Previously in this post, we assessed the vulnerability of House Democrats by using the following criteria: [...]

2010 Elections, March 19 edition

Scorecard

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East Baton Rouge Parish School Board redistricting

Because Central has left the East Baton Rouge Parish school system to form its own school system, the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board was required to redraw its school board districts before the Fall 2010 elections. The School Board voted tonight to reduce the size of the School Board to 11 members (down from the current 12 members) by adopting the 11 member plan, which is shown below. [...]

2010 elections, March 13 edition

Scorecard

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2010 Elections, March 4 edition

Scorecard

We have recently modified our criteria as to which House Democrats we think are vulnerable. Previously, we used the following criteria: [...]