2010 elections, February 26 edition

Election Scoreboard  as of 2/26/2010

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The Effect of Term Limits on the 2011 Legislative Elections

Historically, the Democrats had strong majorities in both houses of the Louisiana Legislature. That began to change starting in 1995. At that time, the GOP tidal wave of 1994, which was part of a larger anti-Clinton tidal wave across the South, finally reached Louisiana. That tidal wave was further augmented by a FBI gambling probe at the end of the fourth Edwards administration that helped knock off several veteran Senate Democrats. This result of this tidal wave was that Republicans began to have a numerical presence in both houses of the Legislature, but when term limits (overwhelmingly supported by Louisiana votes in 1995) kicked in starting with the 2007 elections, the GOP ended up with 50 (out of 105) House members and 16 (out of 39) Senators. [...]

2010 Elections, February 17 edition

Starting today, we will periodically keep you updated on the goings ons of Election 2010 by providing you with a scoreboard that graphically displays relevant data related to the fall elections. We will also discuss various happenings as Election 2010 progresses. [...]

“Bayh Bayh” to the Senate Democratic majority ?

When we analyzed what we thought would happen with US House races this year, we looked at the Obama percentage in each district, the voting record of applicable House incumbents on controversial issues, and their 2008 re-election percentage. We deliberately did not perform the same analysis with the US Senate races this fall because: (1) Senate Democrats have been far more cohesive on legislation that has been voted on so far, (2) the threat of a filibuster has prevented legislation like cap and trade and “card check” from being voted on so far, and (3) only 36 senators face the voters this year (as opposed to all 435 House members). [...]

2010 Elections, February 11 edition (5 or 6 House retirements)

This week started off with the death of 36 year House incumbent John Murtha (Democrat from Pennsylvania).  His death was quickly followed by the retirements of 76 year old Democratic incumbent Diane Watson from Los Angeles, California and Vern Ehlers, who was a 76 year old Republican from Michigan. [...]

Aftershock of the “Massachusetts Miracle”

Last week, when we wrote on the “Obama plunge”in the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts, we noted that a combination of 2008 Presidential election returns, 2008 House of Representative election results, and the voting record of House members on the “Big Three” of the stimulus, “cap and trade” and Obamacare could be used to predict the outcome of the November elections. Using this algorithm, we optimistically foresaw GOP gains from 73 to 165 House seats this fall. What we did not mention was the psychological impact of the Massachusetts vote on legislation that the Democratic leadership wants passed this year before the election. [...]

New Orleans Mayors race – a tale of two elections

What a difference an election cycle makes. After the 2006 New Orleans Mayor’s race, it was thought that a white candidate (even a Landrieu, whose patriarch was the last white mayor) had no future in a citywide election. Last night’s election provided some surprises, but there are also some things that need to be noted. [...]

New Orleans Mayor’s Race – polls close in less than 48 hours

In our Monday post, we noted that 16,582 had early voted. However, mail in ballots are still coming in (deadline is tomorrow). And in this case, 491 have early voted since Monday. [...]

Will voters “clean (Nancy Pelosi’s) House” this November ?

When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic support from independent voters, and has consistently been in the 12-15% range in four out of five races (a special Congressional election in California last November, the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, and the recent special Senate election in Massachusetts) held since the Democratic controlled House of Representatives narrowly passed “cap and trade” legislation last June. [...]

New Orleans Mayor’s Race – Close of Early Voting

Previously, we noted the strong early voting in the New Orleans mayor’s race. This trend continued into the last day of early voting Saturday. The cumulative early vote total is now 16,582, of whom 68% are black and 29% are white (the racial split of the New Orleans voter rolls is 62/31% as of 1/4/2010). To put this number in perspective, this number represents 98% of the early vote for the 2008 Presidential election. [...]