When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic […]
There will be many lengthy post mortems written about this election, so the historic victory of Scott Brown (the last time a Republican Senator in Massachusetts was victorious was in 1972) deserves some “behind the scenes” analysis.
As voters go to the polls tomorrow in Masachusetts, we are on the cusp of a major election upset by Republican Scott Brown. To illustrate how rapidly the ground has shifted on this campaign, let’s look back at the “rolling averages” of polls taken in the last few days:
Today, a poll was released from American Research Group (ARG), which polled 600 likely voters between Tuesday-Thursday, and this poll showed a 48-45% Scott Brown lead. Couple of things worth noting:
With four days days until the election, two new polls have come out, and not only do both show Scott Brown in the lead, but both show him with at least 50% of the vote. The polls released today showed the following:
With five days until the election, a Democratic poll of 500 likely voters by Blue Mass Group/Research 2000 shows a 49-41% Martha Coakley lead. A couple of comments here:
With six days until the election, a new Rasmussen poll has come out showing the Democrat Martha Coakley with a 49-47% lead. Since this is the second poll Rasmussen has done in a week, we have a “trend” now as follows:
2010 promises to be a busy political year. As President Obama enters his second year of office, he/ Congressional Democrats will be ultimately be graded on their performance. Because of the magnitude of filing deadlines and/or primaries, we have developed a spreadsheet to track what’s going on in each of the 50 states.
Edward Kennedy’s death on August 25, 2009 gave Congressional Democrats a powerful assist in their efforts to pass healthcare reform, as this was an issue which he had championed for years. This assist was further strengthened when Massachusetts Democrats changed the law to allow for an interim (Democratic) replacement to be selected which would provide a […]