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Decision 2018: Nevada Republican U.S. Senate poll

The state of Nevada is one swing state that was a bright spot for Democrats last year: not only did Hillary Clinton carry the sate 48-46%, but Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (by a 47-45% margin) was able to keep the seat of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Democratic hands. In addition to those […]

Decision 2017: (Special Election) Alabama U.S. Senate poll – Republican runoff

For two decades, Jeff Sessions has represented Alabama in the United Senate Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election is being called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries on August 15. Doug Jones won the Democratic primary outright, so a runoff […]

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Decision 2017: Alabama US Senate special election primary

For two decades, Jeff Sessions represented Alabama in the United States Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election was called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries tonight (with 8 Democrats and 10 Republicans running), although (UPDATED 8/16 PM) 72% of the primary […]

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Decision 2017: (Special Election) Alabama U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary

For two decades, Jeff Sessions has represented Alabama in the United Senate Senate (interestingly, despite his long tenure, he is the state’s junior senator – his colleague Richard Shelby was elected in 1986). Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election is being called to fill his […]

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Decision 2018: Republicans dodge four bullets (so far)

The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]

Decision 2018: Reading the tea leaves/Another GOP close call

Has Donald Trump sparked a wave of Democratic enthusiasm that will extend into the 2018 midterms and beyond ? That is the question that political pundits have continuously been asking, their curiosity piqued by the consistently low approval ratings that have faced the President since his inauguration (according to RealClearPolitics, his current average disapproval rating […]

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Decision 2017: A near upset for Republicans in Georgia

It’s not often that Congressional special elections get the nation’s attention. The race that concluded last night in Georgia, however, was one of the occasional exceptions to that rule, as this race was believed to be an early test of Donald Trump’s/Republican popularity in “swing” areas. First, some background information: JMC Analytics and Polling has […]

Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters

As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]

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Decision 2017: Is a Congressional Democratic “rebirth” happening?

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump six weeks ago, the perception is that Democrats have become energized, and with this renewed energy, they will be swept back into power in both houses of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. Is this enthusiasm grounded in fact? From previous analyses, JMC has noted that before a November […]

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Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?

Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]