2011 Elections, August 11 Edition

In our previous installment, we had noted that in California, a special election was held that seemed to reaffirm our belief in the “Obama plunge” (i.e., the drop-off in Democrats’ fortunes relative to the 2008 Presidential election) that has continued to show up in most elections since the fall of 2009.

July/August elections [...]

2011 Elections – July results

In our previous analysis, we noted that Wisconsin and California were holding elections this month. Now that the first installment of elections has passed, we have some commentary. [...]

JMCEL’s “Pulse of Louisiana” Poll, July 4 edition

Last month, we conducted a “Pulse of Louisiana” poll, and in that poll, we measured the re-elect numbers for President Obama and Senator Landrieu, and we also looked at how her healthcare reform vote has affected her re-elect numbers. (the results of that poll are here). [...]

2011 Elections, June 30 Edition (Part 2 of 2)

In the previous installment, we discussed (at a high level) the election landscape across the country between July and September. In this installment, we will discuss elections occurring in the “home stretch” of October and November. [...]

2011 Elections, June 30 Edition (Part 1 of 2)

Even though it seems that this is an “off year” with regards to national elections, there are in fact quite a few elections (governor’s races, legislative elections, recalls, and special elections) that will be held throughout the year that have varying partisan implications. We would like to discuss those upcoming elections and monitor them as the year goes on. [...]

JMCEL’s “Pulse of Louisiana” Poll

We recently conducted a statewide poll of likely voters regarding their opinions of President Obama, Senator Landrieu, and Senator Landrieu’s support of healthcare reform. We have posted the poll and/crosstabs here. Below are the summary results:

President Obama re-elect: (33-58% Yes/No)
Senator Landrieu re-elect: (40-42% Yes/No)
Senator Landrieu healthcare vote make more likely to vote for re-election: (30-46% Yes/No)

Louisiana Congressional District Maps

Louisiana Congressional District Political Statistics

At the 11th hour, the Louisiana Legislature agreed to the Congressional reapportionment plan (with amendments) of Representative Erich Ponti (R-Baton Rouge). We have analyzed the changes and have the following obervations/comments: [...]

New Louisiana Senate Maps – Baton Rouge and New Orleans

Below are Senate maps for Baton Rouge and New Orleans: [...]

Louisiana Legislative Redistricting 2011 – Part 3 (Florida Parishes)

In this installment, we would like to discuss the changes to House and Senate districts in the Florida Parishes with the strong caveat that there may still be last minute changes to the lines by either chamber. There is also the ever present possibility of a gubernatorial veto, and the Justice Department could still reject the lines even if the governor signs off on them. [...]