Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets.

This challenge put a premium on having a well-tuned campaign organization, and in that context, Mitt Romney was firing on all cylinders. He swept the state 46-32% over his chief rival Newt Gingrich (Rick Santorum received 13%, and Ron Paul got 7%), and this win was even bigger than the 39% he received in New Hampshire. This was a broad based victory for Romney. As expected, he swept South Florida (which is electorally dominated by Cubans and northeastern retirees) 56-28% over Newt Gingrich. However, Central Florida (with its younger population drawn to the area by employment opportunities) also preferred Romney by an unambiguous 47-32% margin. But what really hurt Gingrich was the vote in the northern part of the state. This region has a Deep South atmosphere and several large military installations, but Newt was only able to eke out a miniscule 39-38% lead over Romney. In fact, it was only in the smaller rural counties that Gingrich was able to show much strength, and that strong showing basically mirrored the South Carolina reults.

As a side note, there are two features about the Florida vote which were not present in the first three contests: (1) turnout actually decreased 15% compared to the similarly decisive 2008 Republican primary, and (2) there was a heavy early vote – it was estimated that over 600K cast their ballots before last night’s vote, meaning that about 3/8 of the voters were making decisions based on events occurring last week.

Looking ahead, “Super Tuesday” is five weeks away on March 6, but the eight upcoming contests (only three of which have delegates tied to the outcome) are tilted towards Mitt Romney. For one thing, none of these states are Southern accented, and this demographic reality helps Romney and hurts Gingrich. Ironically, the one state (Missouri) where Gingrich could have competed in its non-binding February 7 “beauty contest” (Mike Huckabee lost the state by 9,000 votes in the 2008 primary) is out of his reach, since he is not on the ballot there). Furthermore, there will only be one debate (on February 22), so Gingrich will have the additional challenge of getting his message across in unfriendly terrain.

Which leaves us with the question: will there be any candidate withdrawals in the near future to shake up the race further? It’s highly unlikely that Ron Paul will drop out, and Newt Gingrich has indicated that he intends to go the distance. That leaves Rick Santorum, but the fact that he, unlike Gingrich, is on the ballot in Missouri means that he essentially becomes the “anti-Romney” in that contest. So even though presently Santorum is the weakest candidate based on his post Iowa showings, if he can be competitive in upcoming contests (especially in Missouri), his presence (and the accompanying media attention) may keep the Republican race in turmoil, thus enabling Romney to remain above the fray and repeat the “inevitability” argument that he initially brought up in his victory speech last night.

Therefore, the shape of the Republican field will be something we will be continuously analyzing. With the Nevada caucuses this Saturday (Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri are next Tuesday), we think that the outcomes will create a “bandwagon effect” of sorts, as the winner of those contests will enjoy the media spotlight, with nothing (other than a February 11 Maine “straw poll”) to contradict that spotlight until the Arizona and Michigan contests on February 28.

Presidential

Even though “Congressional primary season” doesn’t commence until Ohio’s March 6 primary (Texas’ primary got moved back to at least April 3 due to redistricting litigation), there was a special Congressional election in Oregon last night. The result was not much in doubt: a district in Democratic hands since 1975 that gave Barack Obama 61% of the vote and John Kerry 55% elected Democrat Suzanne Bonamici by a 54-40% margin. This is very similar to the 2010 results, when the disgraced Democrat incumbent who resigned was re-elected 55-42% against the same Republican opponent.

Voter turnout was, for a Congressional special election, a respectable 50% (Oregon conducts its election using mail in ballots), and several things can be extracted from these results: (1) the Pacific Northwest has become increasingly hostile territory for Republicans – even in a bad economy in a relatively affluent district; (2) while there was an “Obama Plunge” (explained here) of 7%, that level of decline in Democratic support is probably not enough for the Republican nominee to feel good about his chances in Oregon, Washington, or California this fall. We noticed a similar level of Democratic sentiment in a special election in Los Angeles, California last year.  

(UPDATE  2/2/2012 AM) Since the South Carolina primary, fling for Congressional races has concluded in West Virginia, and the next deadline is Kentucky (which was moved back to February 7). There have been no big surprises, although in North Carolina, the governor and one of the congressmen (both Democrats) decided against running for re-election. That, combined with the retirement of 30 year Republican veteran Dan Burton (R-Indiana), means that there are 35 House members (21 Democrats and 14 Republicans) not running again, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided to retire. Thus far (with Congressional qualifying completed in six states), we know that 5 seats are guaranteed to elect a Democrat, while 3 seats have already elected a Republican.

(UPDATE 2/2/2012 AM)  In conclusion, this will be a relatively quiet month, as the February Presidential contests are front and back loaded, while there are no Congressional primaries, and only four states (North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, and Pennsylvania) have filing deadlines for Congressional races.

Rarely has a Presidential primary hinged both on a news reporter’s question, as well as the word “maybe.” Yet, the combination of these two items less than 48 hours before Saturday’s balloting during the GOP debate provided the fuel for Newt Gingrich’s 40-28% victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This basically was a landslide: Romney was reduced to pluralities in three (out of 46) counties, and Saturday’s 601K voter turnout was about 33% higher than it was in the 2008 Republican primary (it’s also worth noting that the Republican primary in New Hampshire had 5% higher turnout than in 2008).

Republicans like to point out that since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has become the eventual Republican nominee. Will that be the case this year? It’s too early to tell. For one thing, the next contest will be the January 31 Florida primary. The results from this primary will arguably be a better foreshadowing of who the nominee will be, since the Florida Republican electorate is very diverse, with southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami. Needless to say, building a successful coalition requires some political finesse and a lot of money, and the Gingrich campaign needs a quick infusion of funds if it wants to be competitive in a state with numerous media markets.

UPDATE 1/23 AM There is an additional factor at play here as well: Florida is a state whose voters tend to early vote, and it is estimated that 200K early votes have already been cast  (for comparisons sake, about 2 million voted in the 2008 Presidential primary), so the fact that ballots are being cast as we speak means that any surge in support for any of the remaining candidates will not necessarily be reflected in the January 31 results. In fact, the very same Rasmussen poll released today showing Newt Gingrich with a 41-32% lead over Romney also showed that 14% of those polled have already voted, and within that group, Romney leads by 11%.

While it is important for credibility’s sake for Romney to win in Florida, there is an intangible that in the short term works in his favor: the primary calendar. Between the Florida primary and March 6 (“Super Tuesday”) seven states have contests. In 2008, Romney was an active candidate in six of those states, and he carried five of those six (the sixth state was John McCain’s Arizona). Therefore, the ability to garner support from more independent minded voters who by default will likely support Romney will be a major challenge for Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum – in a sense, the ability to gain this support will be “general election training.”

One factor which does not work in Romney’s favor: the Republican field has lost two contestants, as Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry left the race after New Hampshire. The reason this benefits Gingrich is that, despite Huntsman’s endorsing Romney, he didn’t have much of a national presence, and therefore didn’t bring much to the electoral table for Romney. Rick Perry, on the other hand, endorsed Gingrich, and his mostly Southern conservative supporters will fairly easily transfer over to Newt. This will certainly help on Super Tuesday, as four Southern states will be holding contests on that day, one of which being Texas.

At the present time, the only remaining question about the primaries is Rick Santorum’s electoral viability. While the recent endorsement of evangelicals (and his belated Iowa victory due to a recount) certainly didn’t hurt, he needs to be able to win a primary – or at a bare minimum, get a respectable percentage of the vote in upcoming contests. His third place finish in South Carolina with 17% of the vote keeps him in the race, but he has to be able to cut into Newt’s conservative support if he wants the coveted title of being the “anti Romney.”

Congressional

Even though Congressional primaries don’t commence until March 6 (in Ohio and Texas), there has been some recent action. The biggest news item was yesterday’s resignation of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-Arizona), who was shot a year ago by a mentally deranged constituent. This will necessitate an April primary and a June election for her Republican leaning seat that gave John McCain 55% of the vote.

In other news, candidate filing recently has closed in Maryland, Alabama, and Mississippi, and in those three states, there were no last minute retirements and/or unopposed candidates. One curious incident: in northern Alabama, former Congressman/party switcher Parker Griffith is seeking a rematch against the Republican who soundly defeated him in the primary.

Outside of those states, two Republican Congressman in California (which has a March 9 filing deadline) have chosen to retire, and there are rumors of additional retirements. Similarly, in New York, a ten term Democratic incumbent has decided not to seek re-election, and a six term Pennsylvania Republican recently decided not to run again.

In the upcoming weeks, Kentucky, West Virginia, and North Carolina have filing deadlines, so there may be some last minute surprises there. Overall, before a single ballot has been cast, we know the partisan composition in 8 Congressional seats: 5 seats only have Republicans running, while Democrats are guaranteed to win 3 seats based on the candidates who filed thus far. We also know that 33 House members (20 Democrats and 13 Republicans) are not returning, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided not to run again. These numbers can only increase, since as of today, candidate filing has only closed in five states.

Finally, there is a special Congressional election in Oregon on January 31 in a 61% Obama district that has been held by the Democrats since 1974. While this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome.

Now that the Iowa caucus has concluded with an eight vote “victory” for Mitt Romney, what are we to conclude from the results?  It is true that Mitt Romney “won” Iowa; however, if you look at the data, you realize that his victory was not that remarkable. For one thing, he essentially maintained his 2008 electoral position: he received almost the exact number of votes that he got in 2008, and he received the same 25% of the vote that he got in 2008. Additionally, Romney in 2008 had to compete against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani for the more moderate/liberal Republican voter demographic: in that election, 41% of Iowans voted for one of those three candidates. This time, Romney had that vote all to himself, so in a sense, his electoral position has slipped since 2008. You could also make the argument that conservative voters are more energized this time around.

Does this mean that Romney is in trouble in the upcoming caucuses/primaries? Actually, no. The primary calendar is actually his friend in January and February if you look at the percentage of the vote that went to the more moderate Republican candidates in 2008 – a vote that theoretically would be Romney’s for the taking:

New Hampshire: Romney 32%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 78%

South Carolina: Romney 15%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 50%

Florida: Romney 31%, Romney + McCain + Giuliani: 82%

There is another intangible that in the short term benefits Romney: a divided conservative opposition. Since he is the only candidate who can appeal to moderate and liberal Republicans, divided conservative opposition enables him to “win” with a plurality of the vote, because in the eyes of voters and the media, a win is a win is a win, and if Romney can keep “winning”, it adds fuel to the “Romney is the inevitable nominee” conventional wisdom.

This will obviously change at some point: Michele Bachmann has already withdrawn, and between Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich, only one or two in that bunch can realistically stay in the race by the time “Super Tuesday” rolls around on March 6.

UPDATED 1/5 PM The primary calendar is also Romney’s friend in February and early March, as the states holding primaries/caucuses that month were favorable to Romney in 2008 (he received 60% in Colorado and ran first; 52% in Maine and ran first; 51% in Nevada and ran first; 41% in Minnesota while running first; 39% in Minnesota while running first; 39% in Washington state while running first; and 34% in Arizona while running second against native son John McCain, who recently endorsed Romney).  Since these contests will be the only game in town before March 6, the results will be the context under which the contestants still in the race thrive or are forced out.

What about Super Tuesday? On that date (March 6), there are 12 contests, and in that bunch are Massachusetts, Ohio, and Texas.

While we have discussed at some length the primary calendar and Romney’s strengths/weaknesses, there is yet another subplot here: the extent to which Rick Santorum can withstand the inevitable scrutiny of his record, as prior GOP “frontrunners” have plummeted as quickly as they have soared in the polls as a result of this scrutiny.

Congressional

While the Republican Presidential contest is occurring, the stage for the 2012 Congressional elections is starting to take shape as well. Congressional filing has concluded in Illinois and Ohio, and next week, filing will conclude in Alabama, Maryland, and Mississippi. In Illinois and Ohio, we know of two Congressmen (one Democrat and a Republican) who are retiring, and based on the candidates who filed, Republicans are guaranteed 5 seats, while Democrats are guaranteed 3 seats in the partisan composition of the House.

UPDATED 1/11 AM Even though congressional/statewide primary contests do not commence until March 6 in Ohio and Texas, there is a Congressional special election that will be held on January 31 in Oregon. Democrats have held this seat since 1974, and Barack Obama received 61% of the vote here in 2008. But while this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome. And, of course, this will be yet another race where we will be watching the “Obama plunge” (explained here)

Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided.

From the Republican point of view, a Republican victory in a heavily Jewish seat in New York City, as well as a sweep of Louisiana and Mississippi elections, combined with the capture of four legislative chambers (both houses in Louisiana and Mississippi) and a tie in the Virginia Senate, give them a good feeling about elections this year. Plus, Ohio voters clearly showed their disapproval of the individual mandate that is a cornerstone feature of Obamacare.

Looking Forward

The “tie breaker” will be the federal, state, and local elections to be held next year. Election 2012 has several layers to it, and we will be covering it accordingly:

Presidential: in the near term, Republicans have to pick a nominee to challenge President Obama next fall. While Mitt Romney is the presumed front runner, his poll position has been static, while those opposed to his candidacy have not yet coalesced behind a candidate and stayed there for long. That will change once we get into the thick of the Presidential primaries.

Statewide: This time, only 11 states are holding gubernatorial elections. Democrats hold an 8-3 lead with this group of elected officials, although several of the statehouses held by Democrats (North Carolina, Washington, Montana) appear to be shaky;

Senate: While the Democrats have a 53-47 lead in that chamber, 23 out of 33 Senate seats up this year are held by Democrats, and the picture is further complicated by the fact that 6 out of 8 Senate retirements are Democrats. Combine that with embattled incumbents like Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) who may retire, and the Democrats have their work cut out for them. Especially since only Republican (Scott Brown of Massachusetts) is anywhere near vulnerable;

House: Republicans have a 242-193 lead in that chamber. There are 26 House members who have decided to retire, and 17 of those 26 are Democrats. You also have additional turmoil that will come from redistricting. The story about these races will gradually be told as we know who is running or retiring, and after primaries have been held;

In the near future, Presidential season will be front and center, with four primaries/caucuses in January. Iowa has its caucus on January 3, and New Hampshire’s primary is on January 10.  Filing deadlines are looming in several states as well, and we will be watching to see if there are any additional retirements. Illinois’ filing deadline is December 27, while Maryland’s is January 11.

Below are maps showing the primary dates for the first few months, as well as upcoming filing deadlines.

Red = January, Pink = February, Yellow = March

Red = December, Pink = January, Yellow = February

West Virginia Governor

While early voting in Louisiana “kicks off” this Saturday for the October 22 primary, West Virginia is actually holding an election tomorrow. The Democratic “incumbent” is Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin, who became governor when former governor Joe Manchin was elected to the Senate seat held by the late Robert Byrd last year. His Republican opponent is a businessman named Bill Maloney. The race has considerably tightened in recent days, as a 46-40% lead that the Democrat once held has tightened to 47-46% in a poll released today. Though in Presidential elections, West Virginia has moved considerably to the right in the last decade, Democrats still dominate locally – only two Republicans have been elected governor since the onset of the Great Depression.

Louisiana Statewide Primary

In Louisiana, in person early voting starts this Saturday and continues until Saturday, October 15 (mail in ballots will still be accepted up to the Friday before Election Day). Those politically engaged are naturally interested in what turnout will be, and who will show up. This election is unlike prior statewide elections, because you have a state Democratic Party that, for the first time, has essentially decided not to compete at the statewide level – only minor candidates are running in the races for Governor, Insurance Commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner.

To best assess the issue of turnout quantity, we will examine in person early voting as it progresses, and will make turnout projections. From looking at early voting in the past, we have seen that there is some correlation between the early voting volume and the resulting turnout. For example, in the 2007 statewide primary (when Governor Jindal was elected without a runoff), about 139,000 early voted, and the overall turnout was 1.32 million – in other words, a 47% voter turnout. In the 2010 general election (the race where Senator Vitter was comfortably re-elected over Charlie Melancon, and Jay Dardenne was easily elected Lt. Governor), early voting was slightly less (125,000 early voted), and turnout was similarly a little lower – 1.3 million, or 44%, turned out.

So what should I read into the early voting statistics? Typically, the first day of early voting brings out a relatively large crowd of early voters (although the LSU/Florida game currently scheduled at 2:30 PM in Tiger Stadium has the potential to affect the first day early voting turnout). The early voting volume then plunges for the rest of the week, although you typically have an uptick near the conclusion of early voting. As early voting progresses, we will continually adjust our turnout estimates. Is our method accurate? In last year’s Senate race, our final projection was of a 40% voter turnout, and 44% actually showed up.

What will the Democratic turnout be in the primary? With the major exception of the 2008 Presidential election (which had a massive pro Obama turnout), we have seen that since the inception of in person early voting, Democrats typically face a 5-8% enthusiasm gap during early voting week when compared against those who show up to vote on Election Day. And in the 2007 statewide primary, Democratic enthusiasm was particularly weak – 16% of early voters/24% of all voters were black (compared to a 30% black voter registration). It is this yardstick we will be using as early voting progresses to make turnout assumptions for the October 22 primary election.

October Elections

While the Louisiana race is on everyone’s mind (more on that later), West Virginia has a special election on October 4 for governor, where the appointed Democrat (Earl Ray Tomblin) faces a stiff challenge from Republican businessman Bill Maloney. Louisiana is holding its elections on Saturday, October 22 (in person early voting is from October 8-15). This is an election where Democrats appear to be focused on holding on to what they have, rather than lining up candidates to challenge each and every Republican. In all the statewide races, no Democrat of any significance signed up, and those Democrats who did show up are only offering minor challenges in the race for Governor, Insurance Commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner.

A similar scenario is shaping up in the legislature. Not only did scores of legislators run unopposed (at press time, 20 senators out of 39 are unopposed, while 42 out of 105 representatives are unopposed), but there have been candidate withdrawals even after last week’s withdrawal deadline (so far, 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans have withdrawn).

What is not mentioned (but should be) is that there just isn’t a lot of interest in legislative or statewide elections this year. For example, even though 82 legislative seats (19 in the Senate and 63 in the House) will be competitive, (9/21/2011 PM UPDATE) at least 48 (35 in the House and 13 in the Senate) of those 82 races will be settled in October, because only two candidates are running. In practical terms, this means the maximum number of legislative runoffs possible is 34 (28 in the House and 6 in the Senate). When you compare this to the 46 legislative runoffs (36 in the House and 10 in the Senate) that Louisiana had in November 2007, you begin to realize that this will be one of the quieter election cycles.

November Elections

Louisiana’s elections take a back seat to the rest of the nation on November 8, as you have governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi. There are also legislative races in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

In Mississippi, Democrats are similarly disengaged (according to Brett Kittredge at Majority in Mississippi, Democrats are not contesting three statewide races, while in two other races, they have weak candidates), and the Republican Lt. Governor is a shoo in for the Governor’s chair that is being vacated by Haley Barbour. There is a little more suspense to legislative races, as Republicans control the Senate, while Democrats control the House. An interesting subplot is that neither party could agree on legislative reapportionment, so elections are being held under the 2001 district lines.

In Kentucky, the incumbent Democratic governor has managed to compile a record favorable to most voters, and it appears that he is able to deflect the negative opinions that most Kentucky voters have about President Obama and national Democrats. In fact, the campaign manager for his Republican opponent actually said that he was “hoping and praying for resources.” The last poll we have available shows the Democrat leading 55-26%.

In Virginia and New Jersey, legislative elections are being held. Republicans control the House (but not the Senate) in Virginia, and Republicans are obviously hoping to take the Senate back. On the other hand, in New Jersey, a state that elected Chris Christie governor in 2009 returned a solidly Democratic legislature to power, and Republicans are hoping to change that in this year’s elections.

If runoffs are necessary in Louisiana, the runoff date will be November 19 (in person early voting is from November 5-12).

2012 Elections

Once the fall elections have concluded, our focus will turn to the 2012 Presidential election season.

In New York City, Republican Bob Turner was the surprise victor in this open seat. With 85% of the vote in, he leads 54-46%, but since the bulk of the remaining vote is in the more conservative precincts of Brooklyn, we project that he will ultimately win with 55%. This is a heavily Jewish Congressional district that elected Democrat Chuck Schumer for 18 years, and Democrat Anthony Weiner for 13 years after that. In other words, a district that Republicans only carried in Republican landslide years like 1972 and 1984. Furthermore, at the Congressional level, this district hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1923.

While it’s tempting to pass this off as an isolated special election victory, this election in fact has been part of a consistent trend away from the Democrats relative to the percentage of the vote that President Obama got in 2008. This drop-off in support, which we have referred to as the “Obama plunge” (explained in more detail here ), manifested itself starting with Republican victories in “blue” states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts. It was Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts, in fact, which foretold massive GOP gains in the midterm elections.

The GOP upset in a heavily Jewish district in New York City, however, points to structural problems President Obama will have with getting re-elected, since his performance was the overriding issue in the race. Contrary to what pundits believe, the “Obama plunge” has not disappeared since the 2010 election: in fact, it showed up again in a special election in California this summer, where a Democrat won with 55% in a 64% Obama district. In this district in New York City, President Obama received 55% of the vote in 2008, so a Democrat’s getting a projected 45% of the vote points to a consistent “Obama plunge” of 10% in two different elections on two different coasts.

Practically speaking, what does a 10% “Obama plunge” mean? Keep in mind that the “Obama plunge” varies depending on the demographic makeup of the district. We noted back in the spring of 2010 that districts containing significant numbers of minorities, academics, and Jewish voters did not show an “Obama plunge” as deep as a district in the Midwest, for example. And in the case of New York, a 10% “Obama plunge” probably does not put that state in play for the Republicans in 2012 – indeed, no Republican has carried that state since the 1984 Reagan landslide, and even then, President Reagan only got 54% of the vote.

Where the “Obama plunge” DOES make itself apparent, however, are in the states that President Obama carried by respectable (but not landslide) margins. In other words, states like Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are very shaky for the President right now, and about all he can count on would be Democratic bulwarks like California, Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts. So unless the economy significantly improves, or President Obama changes his tactics, he faces an unambiguous defeat on the scale that only former President Jimmy Carter would have experienced in 1980.

September elections

Qualifying has concluded in Louisiana, and as we noted in a precious article, the Democrats largely conceded the statewide races, and made a halfhearted attempt to compete in the legislative races. However, if you look at those who filed for the House and Senate, Republicans have already picked up two seats apiece in the state senate (where they currently have a 22-17 majority) and in the state house (where they currently have a 57-46-2 majority).

Now that election season has officially begun in Louisiana, it will be a quick sprint to the finish. Early voting starts in 4 weeks, and for the next several days, candidates who get cold feet can withdraw from the race – it’ll be interesting to see who drops out during this time period.

Additionally, this is the “window” for possible ballot challenges to candidates who have qualified. Up in Monroe, two legislative candidates are facing this unwanted scrutiny.

While candidates in Louisiana are working their races, there are special elections for open Congressional seats in Nevada and New York on September 13. The Republican has a good lead in the polls in Nevada, and is expected to hold the seat for the Republicans. In New York, things have turned sour for the Democrats (just like they did in Massachusetts) in the waning days of the campaign. Several consecutive polls are showing the Republican Bob Turner with leads over Democrat David Weprin (who in a recent debate not only admitted to living outside of the district, but declined to state when he’d make himself a resident).

The race in New York is interesting, because it has become a referendum  on the Obama administration in general, and its conduct towards Israel in particular. A recent Siena poll shows shocking weakness for the Democrats in a district that voted 67% for Al Gore, 56% for John Kerry, and 56% for Barack Obama. This poll showed that:

• Jewish voters, by a 54-42% margin, were unfavorable towards the Obama administration;
• Jewish voters prefer the Democrat by a tepid 51-45% margin (while Catholics prefer the Republican 62-33%);
• Union voters favor the Republican 49-45%;
• 79% of voters have already made up their mind;

What has to be reiterated when looking at these results is that (especially in the northeast), Jewish and union voters are at least 2:1 Democratic, and this district elected Chuck Schumer for 18 years and Anthony Weiner for 13 years after that. A Republican victory here would be an upset of the magnitude of Scott Brown in Massachusetts. In that race, the Brown victory foretold massive Democratic losses in the 2010 midterm elections; a Republican victory in New York City in a race where President Obama was the issue would not be a positive verdict on his re-election. It’s worth remembering that Jewish voters were similarly disenchanted with President Carter in 1980, and this disenchantment not only cost Carter a Democratic primary victory in New York, but he lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan while losing solidly Democratic states like New York and Massachusetts.

October elections

Early voting in Louisiana starts on October 8 (the primary election is October 22), but before that, West Virginia is holding a special election for governor on October 4.  A recent poll shows the appointed Democratic incumbent Earl Ray Tomblin with a 46-40% lead over Republican businessman Bill Maloney, which suggests that race will be competitive all the way to the end.

September elections

In addition to candidate qualifying in Louisiana (discussed here) on September 6-8, there will be special Congressional elections on September 13 in Nevada and New York. In Nevada, the Republican has benefitted from strong Republican early voting, and is currently the favorite to hold the seat for the GOP (its former occupant vacated the seat when the state’s Republican governor appointed him to a vacated U.S. Senate seat). Additionally, Democrats do not seem to be investing much in terms of resources in this race, which is an implicit statement as to what they think their chances are.

Democrats are nervous about New York : a heavily Jewish district that elected Democrats like Chuck Schumer for 18 years and Anthony Weiner for the following 13 years is showing signs of discontent with the Obama administration. And recent blunders by Democrat David Weprin haven’t helped: in addition to stating that the national debt was $4 trillion, he canceled an appearance at a debate sponsored by a neighborhood association. This behavior (apparent overconfidence, combined with verbal gaffes) is similar to another recent “inevitable” Democratic candidate: Democrat Martha Coakley, who in heavily Democratic Massachusetts managed to fall behind in the final days to Republican Scott Brown in the special election called to fill the seat of the late Senator Edward Kennedy. Though we’re not yet ready to call this race a possible upset, it’s newsworthy when Democrats are fighting to hold onto a seat in New York City, especially since Democrats have held a majority of the U.S. House delegation in New York since the 1950s.

October elections

Within the borders of Louisiana, all eyes will be on the October 22 primary. Before that, however, West Virginia is holding a special election for governor on October 4. The appointed incumbent Democrat (Earl Ray Tomblin) is favored,but his Republican opponent has the resources to compete.

August elections

Though it has been relatively quiet on the electoral front recently, there were elections in Wisconsin and Mississippi. In Wisconsin, the Republicans were unable to recall either of two Democratic state senators, while in Mississippi, the Democratic runoff for governor has concluded, and the black mayor of Hattiesburg (Johnny duPree) is the Democratic nominee. He is the underdog against Republican Lt. Governor Phil Bryant.

September elections

Things start to pick up in September. Next Tuesday-Thursday (September 6-8) will be candidate qualifying for the fall elections in Louisiana for all statewide elected officials, all 144 legislative seats, the state education board (also known as BESE), and a myriad of local/parish-wide races.

Thus far, the governor’s race has been quiet. Other than Democratic school teacher Tara Hollis, no one else has decided publicly to challenge Governor Bobby Jindal, although term-limited state senator Rob Marionneaux (D-Maringouin) is keeping his cards close to his vest as to whether he will run.

Therefore, as qualifying approaches, we’ll be watching for the following in an otherwise low-wattage election season: (1) how many incumbents will receive significant challenges, (2) how many Republican vs. Republican races will there be, and (3) to what extent Democrats will attempt to compete this year. The latter point has historical significance, because it wasn’t until the 2007 elections that the GOP began to target legislative seats (that year, they contested 23 out of  39 Senate seats and 67 out of 105 House seats). Even though they fell short of legislative control after those elections, today, they control 56 House seats (Rep. Taylor Barras of New Iberia switched parties on August 12) and 22 Senate seats.

As qualifying progresses, we will keep track of how many offices are being contested and/or the extent of partisan competition, and compare those results against the 2007 statewide elections.

Once qualifying has concluded in Louisiana, New York and Nevada are holding special Congressional elections on September 13. In Nevada, you have an open Republican seat outside of Las Vegas. Recent polling shows the Republican (Mark Amodei) ahead, but by varying amounts. Magellan Strategies (which polls Republican candidates) shows Amodei ahead 48-35%, while a poll paid for by SEIU (the service employees’ union that typically supports Democrats) shows a one point Republican lead. Early voting has already begun, and Amodei also has secured the endorsement of the Republican Governor.

In New York, Democrats actually have a fight on their hands to keep a heavily Jewish House seat in New York City that once elected Democrats Chuck Schumer for 18 years and Anthony Weiner for the following 13 years. A district that once gave Al Gore 67%, John Kerry 56%, and Barack Obama 55% has soured on President Obama. The question is whether those voter attitudes will translate into a Scott Brown like upset by the Republicans, since Republicans have generally not had much recent success in New York House elections, and Democrats have held a majority of the House delegation since the 1950s.

October elections

While the non partisan primary on October 22 will undoubtedly be the focus of voters in Louisiana, there in fact is another election before that: West Virginia is holding a special election for governor on October 4. This special election is necessary because Governor Joe Manchin was elected to the U.S. Senate last year, and Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin became the acting governor. Though he is well funded (and according to the Democratic Governor’s Association, leads 47-33% in a recent poll), his Republican opponent Bill Maloney is able to self fund his campaign, and West Virginia is one of those states where any Democrat running has to disassociate himself from national Democratic policies, especially with regards to coal.