The general election is now six days away. In person early voting has concluded (although mail in ballots can still be accepted until Friday). We have been following the the early voting numbers, and what we’ve noticed so far is as follows: [...]
Early voting for Louisiana’s October 22 statewide primary started yesterday and will continue until next Saturday (mail in ballots will still be accepted until the day before Election Day). From examining early voting statistics provided to us by the Secretary of State, there are several things we noticed: [...]
In our last article, we raised the issue of projected turnout for the October 22 elections by noting that early voting volume, as well as the demographic mixture of the early voters, could paint a turnout portrait before the Secretary of State issues its turnout projections. [...]
In our previous installment, we discussed the upcoming elections within and without Louisiana that will be held in October and November. In this article, we will focus only on October elections. [...]
Recently, JMC Enterprises of Louisiana was commissioned by the Hayride to poll Louisiana voters on their preferences in the Lt Governor and the Secretary of State’s race. The Hayride has done a complete writeup here; the actual poll is here.
One of the most misunderstood areas of election analysis is the impact that turnout intensity (or lack thereof) can have on a race. For Louisiana elections, turnout intensity is most noticeable when you look at the extent to which whites and blacks vote. One of the oldest truisms in Louisiana electoral politics is that whites turn out proportionately more than blacks do. In this article, we would like to use examples both at the statewide and legislative level to illustrate how this truism impacts (or can impact) elections. [...]
In our previous installment, we analyzed the twin victories for the GOP in two special Congressional elections. In both cases, the “Obama plunge” (explained here) resurfaced – it was a 9 point plunge in New York, while in Nevada, the plunge was 13 points. These types of dilutions in Democratic support, if they continue, will be ominous for President Obama as he seeks to get re-elected next year. [...]
In our previous installment, we had noted the onset of Louisiana election season, as well as the fact that Democrats had written off a special House election in Nevada, while getting more nervous about their chances in a special election for a House seat in New York City. [...]
Candidate filing has concluded in Louisiana. This was the first year in history that Democrats largely stayed away. So what happened? [...]
The second day of filing has concluded (the deadline to file is 5PM tomorrow). Most of the remaining “holdouts” among the incumbents did end up filing today, and some more challengers filed today as well. Overall, however, the pace was considerably slower than yesterday (40 candidates for statewide legislative office filed today, as opposed to the 246 who filed yesterday). [...]
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