UPDATE 1/11 PM The New Hampshire primary has concluded, and Mitt Romney won a clear victory with 39% of the vote – this from a state that only gave him 32% of the vote and a second place showing in 2008. As with Iowa, the conservative vote remained splintered. Unlike Iowa, the New Hampshire Republican electorate is less hospitable to conservatives (particularly Southern and/or social conservatives), and as such, Romney mostly had the more moderate electorate to himself.

Did the New Hampshire primary results resolve anything? Not really, since there have thus far been no candidate withdrawals. Rick Perry only finished in New Hampshire with 1%, but he had written off New Hampshire, instead placing all his hopes on the January 21 South Carolina primary. He will have to compete against Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum (each of them got 9% in New Hampshire), however, for that conservative vote, which in the 2008 GOP primary was about 50% of the South Carolina electorate.

UPDATE 1/11 PM There are four things worth noting about the New Hampshire primary results: (1) last night’s turnout of 248K is actually above the 2008 Republican turnout of 235K, so media stories about disinterested Republican primary voters are not entirely correct, (2) the “conservative” vote of 19% (Gingrich + Santorum) is eerily similar to the 22% of New Hampshire voters who voted for conservative candidates in 2008, (3) exit polling showed that among registered Republicans, 49% supported Romney, while 25% supported Gingrich or Santorum, and (4) among Democratic primary voters, President Obama received 82%, while a write in campaign for Hillary Clinton received 10%.  This is a respectable showing, but for presidential incumbents, the bar is really high when there is no serious opposition, and as such, less than a 90+% vote indicates some discontent with the Democratic base.

Looking ahead, South Carolina has a January 21 primary, while the Florida primary is January 31. While on the surface, these would seem to be conservative southern states, “moderate” candidates received 50% of the South Carolina primary vote and 82% of the Florida primary vote. Therefore, it’s a fairly safe assumption that the more that conservative opposition to Romney is fragmented, the greater are the odds that Romney can “win” these states with pluralities. There is a subplot to these upcoming primaries: at some point (most likely South Carolina), one or more of the trio of conservative candidates opposing Romney will likely throw in the towel. Those remaining in the race will have to be well funded and/or organized if they wish to remain credible candidates, because Florida’s multiple media markets make that an expensive state to compete in, not to mention the cost of competing in multiple states starting with the February primaries/caucuses.

Congressional

Even though Congressional primaries don’t commence until March 6 in Ohio and Texas, there has been some recent action. Candidate filing is closing today in Maryland, while on Friday, filing closes in Alabama and Mississippi. While there were no surprises in Maryland (i.e., retirements and/or unopposed candidates), two Republican Congressmen in California (where filing closes on March 9) have chosen to retire, and there are rumors of more.

Overall, before a single ballot has been cast, we know the partisan composition in 8 Congressional seats: 5 seats only have Republicans running, while Democrats are guaranteed to win 3 seats based on the candidates who filed thus far. We also know that 29 House members (17 Democrats and 12 Republicans) are not returning, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided not to run again. These numbers will obviously change, since we are very early in “filing season.”

Other than that, there is a special Congressional election in Oregon on January 31 in a 61% Obama district that has been held by the Democrats since 1974. While this is a Democratic leaning district, it does contain the affluent suburbs of Portland, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which economic issues can play a part in the outcome.

Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided.

From the Republican point of view, a Republican victory in a heavily Jewish seat in New York City, as well as a sweep of Louisiana and Mississippi elections, combined with the capture of four legislative chambers (both houses in Louisiana and Mississippi) and a tie in the Virginia Senate, give them a good feeling about elections this year. Plus, Ohio voters clearly showed their disapproval of the individual mandate that is a cornerstone feature of Obamacare.

Looking Forward

The “tie breaker” will be the federal, state, and local elections to be held next year. Election 2012 has several layers to it, and we will be covering it accordingly:

Presidential: in the near term, Republicans have to pick a nominee to challenge President Obama next fall. While Mitt Romney is the presumed front runner, his poll position has been static, while those opposed to his candidacy have not yet coalesced behind a candidate and stayed there for long. That will change once we get into the thick of the Presidential primaries.

Statewide: This time, only 11 states are holding gubernatorial elections. Democrats hold an 8-3 lead with this group of elected officials, although several of the statehouses held by Democrats (North Carolina, Washington, Montana) appear to be shaky;

Senate: While the Democrats have a 53-47 lead in that chamber, 23 out of 33 Senate seats up this year are held by Democrats, and the picture is further complicated by the fact that 6 out of 8 Senate retirements are Democrats. Combine that with embattled incumbents like Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) who may retire, and the Democrats have their work cut out for them. Especially since only Republican (Scott Brown of Massachusetts) is anywhere near vulnerable;

House: Republicans have a 242-193 lead in that chamber. There are 26 House members who have decided to retire, and 17 of those 26 are Democrats. You also have additional turmoil that will come from redistricting. The story about these races will gradually be told as we know who is running or retiring, and after primaries have been held;

In the near future, Presidential season will be front and center, with four primaries/caucuses in January. Iowa has its caucus on January 3, and New Hampshire’s primary is on January 10.  Filing deadlines are looming in several states as well, and we will be watching to see if there are any additional retirements. Illinois’ filing deadline is December 27, while Maryland’s is January 11.

Below are maps showing the primary dates for the first few months, as well as upcoming filing deadlines.

Red = January, Pink = February, Yellow = March

Red = December, Pink = January, Yellow = February

Overall, Republicans had a respectable year, but Democrats demonstrated in multiple instances that they were and are still capable of winning elections when they decide to compete. In the Senate, the partisan balance was established after the October primary, and is 24 Republicans and 15 Democrats, for a gain of two Republicans (both pickups came from term limited Democrats). In the House, the Republicans netted a one seat gain (two of their incumbents lost in partisan contests), and that chamber will have 58 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents. What are we to take from last night’s results?

(1) Despite Republican dreams of legislative supermajorities, Democrats are still capable of generating a healthy turnout, and it was this turnout that arguably helped elect Democrats in House races from Minden to Natchitoches to Lafayette;

(2) Therefore, efforts to target Democrats need to be done with more finesse – while a district’s preference in statewide races indicates pickup opportunities, the basics still matter: candidate recruitment is crucial, as is the campaign messaging. And ultimately, the fact that Republicans left seats on the table this year is not necessarily a bad thing for them, because those seats will open up through retirements, resignations, and/or term limits – in 14 legislative districts (12 in the House and 2 in the Senate), Senator David Vitter received at least 55% of the vote – those seats under the right circumstances can be GOP pickups in the future;

(3) Term limits are perhaps weeding out weaker incumbents before they become electorally vulnerable: only one Senate incumbent (Shreveport Democrat Lydia Jackson) was defeated, while four House incumbents lost;

(4) The black caucus has again benefitted from reapportionment – it now has 9 senators (an increase of 1) and 23 representatives (an increase of 3). And equally as important, the “New Orleans influence” within this caucus will be weaker when the new legislature convenes, as you now have additional black legislators coming from places like Ruston, LaPlace, and Monroe;

(5) Finally, we noticed in BESE races that there is a new dimension to races in black majority districts – the role that white voters can now play in choosing the winner. This newfound electoral muscle made itself apparent in two Senate runoffs. In Acadiana, embattled incumbent Elbert Lee Guillory (D-Opelousas) was able to win with 56% of the vote by assembling a diverse coalition that included 83% of St Landry Parish whites, 65% of Lafayette Parish whites, and 49% of St Landry Parish blacks (he only received 28% of the black vote in Lafayette/St Martin Parishes). In other words, without the white “bloc vote”, Cravins would have won. Up in Shreveport, former (he served from 1983-2003) state senator Greg Tarver ended Lydia Jackson’s career by getting 51% of the black vote and 64% of the white vote – the endorsements Tarver received from Republican elected officials certainly made a difference.

While this marks the end of the 2011 season, a new political era in Louisiana has begun: one where Republicans are competitive, and one where assembling multiracial coalitions is the key to victory regardless of the party affiliation or the ideology of the officeholder.

We had noted after the primary that BESE races were a continual source of frustration for conservatives and/or education reformers, as their candidates usually could not compete against a formidable coalition of populist Democratic voters that included blacks, teachers unions, and those connected to state or local governments.

In 2011, the business community, with Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby as their quarterback, decided to invest their resources in the BESE races. These efforts were met with success: in the October primary, three incumbents were defeated, and three more races went into a runoff. The reformers’ similarly scored a clean sweep in the runoff elections, as their candidates (one Republican and two black Democrats) defeated their opponents, who were strongly supported by the teachers unions.

What makes these victories notable was that, for once, the teachers unions had very little clout in the broader black community outside of the traditional black power structure. The most notable example of this was in District 8 (which covers territory between Baton Rouge and Lafayette), where political newcomer Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat) received 58% of the runoff vote. The way she achieved this victory was a good case study of the rise of new political coalitions.

In the primary, Hill faced three opponents. One (Domoine Rutledge) was supported by the teachers unions and traditional black political leaders. Another (Russell Armstrong) was co endorsed by the business lobby. There was also a white Independent named Jimmy Guillory. In the past, the result would have been preordained: Rutledge would have faced Guillory in the runoff, and Rutledge would have then received 55-60% of the runoff vote (about 60% of the voters are black).

That’s not what happened in this race. In the primary, Carolyn Hill built a multiracial coalition of moderate black politicians and Christian conservatives. This, combined with the co endorsement of the main business group, enabled her to garner 20% of the white vote and 33% of the black vote in the primary. Rutledge actually ran last, despite his  support from unions/most black political leaders, as he only received 36% of the black vote and 9% of the white vote. In the runoff, Hill was able to expand her base with white voters by getting an impressive 33% of that voter bloc. Because she was not the preferred choice of traditional black political organizations/politicians, she only received 80% of the black vote (historically, blacks in contested races against a white candidate received at least 90% of the black vote). This is an impressive coalition she assembled, because this district historically was a populist union/Democratic stronghold.

The black electorate exhibited similar independence in the BESE race for the black majority district in New Orleans/the River Parishes, although in this case, two black Democrats made the runoff. While the incumbent, Louella Givens, had the support of the teachers unions, she had the baggage of a 1.3 million dollar tax lien on her house and a DWI arrest, while her opponent, Teach For America executive Kira Orange Jones, had the endorsements of Senator Mary Landrieu, retiring Senate President Joel Chaisson, and several other black elected officials. In the primary, Jones actually led 39-31% by essentially running even in the black community (she trailed only 36-37% against Givens) and amassing an impressive 63-14% lead with the white vote. This coalition enabled Jones to defeat the incumbent 57-43% in the runoff, which was attained by Jones’ getting 71% of the white vote and 44% of the black vote.

The reformers’ third victory was in District 6 (Baton Rouge/the Florida Parishes), where first term Republican incumbent (and the ringleader of the reformers) Chas Roemer scored a 57-43% win over Donald Songy, who had the wholehearted endorsement of the teachers unions. This victory was not unexpected, however, as there were Republican votes to spare – Vitter carried this district 68-26% last year.

In conclusion, the BESE races were noteworthy for two reasons: (1) education reform (in terms of charter schools, school choice, performance grading of schools, and the like) is an issue that both unites the disparate elements of the conservative bloc and separates a black voters from the teachers unions; (2) the old political paradigm of black candidates’ only being electorally viable if they have the express consent of the network of ministers and politicians has been discredited. Ironically, this is an unintended consequence of the creation of more “majority minority” districts – these new districts now have a significant minority of white voters whose votes now must be sought by black politicians if they want to win. Carolyn Hill and Kira Orange Jones clearly recognized this new electoral reality, while their opponents did not.

In the next installment, we will discuss the legislative races. Below is the map of BESE districts in effect for the 2011 elections.

BESE Districts

Certainly no one had a better night than Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby. And for good reason: three incumbents were defeated, and three more races were pushed into a runoff. Historically, BESE has been one of those elected offices that not only got little attention (they share the ballot with statewide and legislative races), but was a continual source of frustration for conservatives, as Democrats allied with teachers unions historically dominated these races – Republicans weren’t even elected to the BESE board until 2003, and it wasn’t until 2007 that they even seriously contested a majority of the seats.

There were two reasons for this: (1) Because BESE is an unpaid position, not many people other than teachers unions and educational administrators used to care about who sat on the board, (2) until 2011, the business community didn’t pay much attention to those races.

That changed this year when construction contractor Lane Grigsby (whose mantra is “get into politics or get out of business”), decided to get involved, because of his belief that the public education system in Louisiana was broken. His involvement in this (and other races in the past) was no laughing matter: last year, for example, he provided the resources to help knock three incumbents off the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board. His motivation is simple: he goes after incumbents who he believes “don’t understand they’re supposed to be public servants.” That, combined with his desire to end teacher tenure (he noted that “it’s ten times harder to fire a teacher than it is for a lawyer to lose their license.”) motivated him into the BESE arena.

How did he do? In a board of 8 elected members (an additional 3 are appointed), only two incumbents were re-elected. One (recent party convert Walter Lee of Shreveport) was unopposed, while favorable incumbent Jim Garvey (R-Metairie) was re-elected in the primary with 58% of the vote. Each of the remaining six districts has its own story to tell:

BESE Districts

Defeated Incumbents:

In District 3 (south Louisiana between New Orleans and Lafayette), Democratic incumbent Glenny Lee Buquet lost 56-44% to Republican Lottie Beebe, despite the fact that Governor Jindal supported the Democratic incumbent. What happened? In this case, we believe it was Buquet’s Democratic Party label. In the two parishes (Terrebonne and Lafourche) that were most familiar with the incumbent, Buquet received 55% of the vote. In the rest of the district, 62% favored the Republican challenger. Since this is an area where the oil industry is a vital part of the economy, we believe that the drilling moratorium, and the resultant drop off in terms of Democratic Party identity, contributed to this large Republican vote. There was another contributing factor to Buquet’s defeat: even though the district is 20% black by voter registration, black turnout was significantly lower, and the Republican challenger got 19% of the black vote.

District 5 covers northeast Louisiana, and in this case, freshman Democrat Keith Guice lost 55-45% to Republican Jay Guillot – Guice was one of Grigsby’s targets. The demographics behind Guillot’s victory are just as fascinating: despite Guice having a base in the Republican stronghold of Ouachita Parish (he received 49% in a parish where Democrats are lucky to get 40%) and several rural parishes near Alexandria, Guillot was bolstered by a 58% vote out of Rapides Parish (Alexandria) and a strong vote in most of the rural parishes. It also didn’t hurt that Guillot got 14% of the black vote, and their turnout intensity was roughly half that of whites (white turnout was 37%, while black turnout was 20%).

District 7 covers southwest Louisiana, and in this case, you had a 12 year Democratic incumbent (Dale Bayard) quietly switch parties earlier this year, despite his being considered favorable to teachers unions. Nevertheless, he was another Grigsby target, and Republican political newcomer Holly Boffy soundly defeated Bayard 67-33%. Not only did Boffy carry every parish, but she even prevailed 63-37% in Bayard’s home parish of Calcasieu (Lake Charles).

Runoffs:

District 2 is one of two black majority districts. The district includes New Orleans and some of the River Parishes. Two term incumbent Louella Givens (who herself defeated an incumbent in 2003) trailed challenger Kira Orange Jones 39-31%. Jones, who sported the endorsements of Senator (and New Orleans native) Mary Landrieu and the Alliance for Good Government, also was helped by the legal and tax problems of Givens (she had a DWI arrest and a 1.3 million dollar tax lien placed on her house). This is an interesting exhibition of the black community’s growing independence from the teachers unions, who lined up behind Givens. Givens had a tepid 37-36% lead in the black precincts (a slightly larger 41-33% in New Orleans), while with the white vote, Jones led 63-14%. Givens is in trouble in the runoff.

District 8 is the second black majority district that includes the black communities in Baton Rouge and Lafayette, as well as some rural parishes with a significant black population. This was an open seat, and four candidates (three of whom are black) ran. Despite the fact that Domoine Rutledge (attorney for the EBR School System) had the support of the teachers unions, he finished last with 21%. Making the runoff were Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat who is a certified social worker and is pro school reform) and Independent Jimmy Guillory. This was an interesting race because Hill ran without the support of teachers unions and traditional black political groups; instead, she built a biracial coalition. She is in a strong position for the runoff.

Finally, the champion of reform was incumbent Republican Chas Roemer (District 6 incumbent), who was strongly backed by Grigsby. Though forced into a runoff with a 45-29% lead over Democrat Donald Songy, the remaining 26% of the voters supported a Republican, and Roemer only needs a fraction of that vote to win. In fact, his runoff strategy is simple: (1) add to his already large 56-26% lead over Songy in East Baton Rouge Parish (not too tough to do, since the East Baton Rouge precincts in the district are 14% black), (2) consolidate the Republican vote in the suburban/rural parishes along I-12, where Roemer only led 38-25% (the other Republican received the remaining 36%).

In conclusion, there were several interesting features about the BESE races this year: (1) without a contested governor’s race to distract voters, the conservative nature of Louisianians finally made itself apparent in these races, (2) the fact that pro school choice/educational reform candidates had the resources to compete for the first time, and (3) the reality (apparent from the data) that blacks are no longer a rock solid part of the traditional Democratic coalition (unions, government employees, blacks, and trial lawyers) in Louisiana, and in fact are receptive to reform minded candidates.

We had noted before that there was a sense that the Louisiana Democratic Party, which as recently as 2005 controlled every statewide office, would be irrelevant in this year’s political climate.  And Republican legislative victories in areas that once gave Edwin Edwards over 70% of the vote, combined with a deluge of party switches in the wake of the 2010 elections, added to that prevailing wisdom. This was the political context for the aggressive targeting from  Senator Vitter and Governor Jindal of Democratic open seats and/or incumbent Democratic legislators. Additionally, the TEA Party targeted Republican legislators they thought were not sufficiently conservative. Were they successful?

Senate

In the Louisiana Senate, no incumbent Democrat was defeated outside of reapportionment (although two term incumbent Ben Nevers of Bogalusa was held to 51%). And for that matter, no incumbent Republican legislator was defeated either, despite the efforts of the TEA Party. In fact, the closest Republican race was that of two term incumbent Bob Kostelka, who was held to 52%, even though the TEA Party was not explicitly involved in that race.

From a partisan perspective, the balance in the Senate is set now at 24 Republicans and 15 Democrats. There are four runoffs remaining: two are in black district districts in Shreveport and Lafayette/Opelousas where former incumbents are seeking a comeback. A third runoff is in a newly created black majority district in the River Parishes. The final runoff is a Republican on Republican race along the Texas border where an incumbent backed by Governor Jindal faces the former occupant of the seat. Though the district gave 76% of the vote to Governor Jindal, the balance of power is in the 25% who voted for the Democrat, so this will be an interesting runoff to watch.

House

The partisan picture is less clear in the House. Just like the Senate, no incumbent of either party lost outside of reapportionment, even though the Republicans targeted several Democratic seats. As of right now, 49 Republicans have been elected (a majority is 53 out of 105 members), as have 34 Democrats and an Independent (“Dee” Richard of Thibodaux). If you include the 21 runoffs where you have Republican/Republican or Democrat/Democrat races, the partisan balance becomes 54 Republicans, 41 Democrats, and an Independent. Depending on the outcome of the runoffs, you are looking at a Republican delegation of between 54 and 62 Republicans (the current breakdown is 57 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents).

Looking ahead

Even though the GOP’s targeting efforts did not seem to produce the windfall they hoped for (arguably, party switchers removed most of the “low hanging fruit”), the GOP still has time on their side: their best strategy is to use term limits and/or vacated Democratic seats as their source of additional legislative seats. For instance, Senator Ben Nevers (D-Bogalusa) was re-elected with 51% of the vote, and his district voted 66-28% for David Vitter. He is term limited in 2015. His seat should be the Republicans’ top priority, particularly since his district contains parts of St Tammany and Tangipahoa that are seeing a steady influx of decidedly Republican residents from Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

On the House side, there are three GOP favorable seats whose Democratic incumbents are term limited: Jim Fannin (D-Jonesboro), Mickey Guillory (D-Eunice), and Harold Ritchie (D-Bogalusa). All three of these districts gave David Vitter over 60% of the vote and should be the Republicans’ top priority for pickups.

Enter the black Republicans

As a final thought, six black Republicans ran for legislative seats. How did they fare ? While none of them were elected (or even made the runoff), their performance last night was promising: all got between 14 and 26% of the vote, and if you allow for the fact that a house district in Baton Rouge had two black Republicans running, that district gave 30% of its vote to a black Republican. So while the efforts seem fruitless this year, this is light years ahead of 2007, when three black Republicans ran for the legislature, and all received between 8 and 12% of the vote. In other words, by the time the next reapportionment election comes around (and maybe even before that), black Republicans will be viable politically in Louisiana.

In the interest of space, we will discuss in the next installment the BESE races and how Baton  Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby is someone who has established himself on the political scene by accomplishing something that has continually eluded conservative/business interests in the past.

Statewide elected officials

The conventional wisdom after qualifying was that “Democrats need not apply” for elected office. This was largely true at the statewide level (we will later discuss how this was NOT the case with legislative races). Democrats essentially sat out on the statewide elections: no Democrat of any significance (i.e., an elected official or a public figure) filed for a statewide office, and in two races (Lt Governor and Secretary of State) Republicans were left to fight it out amongst themselves.

Governor Bobby Jindal was the big winner last night: he was re-elected with an astounding 66% of the vote. He carried all 64 parishes, and in 59 of those parishes, he received an absolute majority. This is a record percentage for a Republican governor – not even Mike Foster attained that percentage in his 1999 re-election. When you examine the data at a more granular level, you begin to appreciate that this was not a broad based landslide. The first noteworthy number (from an examination of selected precincts across the state) was the 19% of the black vote Jindal received. This is certainly impressive for a Republican, although it didn’t hurt that their 19% turnout was significantly less than the overall statewide turnout of 36%. The second item of interest was that, buried in the landslide, was the governor’s unenthusiastic reception from parishes with a large number of state workers (particularly prison employees). In his home parish of East Baton Rouge, for instance, his 51% of the vote was actually a decrease in support relative to his 2007 performance. Similarly, in the Felicianas, he received about 50%, while in Avoyelles, he received 43% (Vitter defeated Melancon 56-36% there last year).

Jindal 2011 By Parish

The next race of interest was the Lt Governor’s race. Incumbent Republican Jay Dardenne was elected to the position in 2010 after its former incumbent was elected Mayor of New Orleans. In this race, Dardenne turned back a stiff (and well funded) challenge from fellow Republican Billy Nungesser. What was interesting about this race was that many Republican activists were vocally opposed to the incumbent, and Nungesser spent a significant amount of money getting on the election day ballots that are a commonplace on Election Day in many black neighborhoods across the state. In 2011, this action gained him little: in the parishes we examined, Dardenne received 51% of the black vote. He (Dardenne) also received a strong 64% of the vote out of the Baton Rouge area, where he has been a familiar presence for decades (he was first elected to public office in 1988; before that, he was on the Labor Day Telethon for years).

So how did Dardenne win? In addition to the 51% of the black vote he received, he had the benefit of a broad base of support (he carried 46 parishes). Nungesser did carry every parish in the New Orleans media market and just about everything along the coast between New Orleans and the Mermentau River. But that was the extent of his electoral appeal, which understandably was a natural offshoot of his television exposure after the oil spill.

Incumbent Secretary of State Tom Schedler (who assumed the office when Jay Dardenne was elected Lt Governor in 2010) was the apparent winner by a razor thin 8,500 vote margin over term limited House Speaker Jim Tucker. This was another two Republican race.

Further down the ballot, the incumbent commissioner of agriculture and insurance (who were both Republicans) were comfortably re-elected with 67% of the vote against minor opposition. The remaining incumbents (again, all Republicans) were re-elected without opposition.

In our next installment, we will discuss the BESE and legislative races. One item we plan to discuss: why was Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby the biggest winner last night?

Clues will be provided early on as to how strongly Governor Jindal will perform when the early vote totals are released (for those who are not used to looking at election returns on the Secretary of State’s site, the early vote for an entire parish is reported as its own “precinct”) In 2007, while Jindal received 54% of the statewide vote, the early voters (who were 11% of the total vote that year) gave him 63% of the vote. Therefore, this 63% figure is a benchmark that can be used to measure how much his 2011 percentage has improved over 2007. Here’s how the early vote went in the larger parishes (as you can see, Republicans did a good job of getting their supporters to vote early in the larger parishes):

What makes this year interesting is our belief that the early vote will represent 15-20% (or in some parishes, an even greater percentage) of the final vote, so you’ll have a good early indication of the outcome in some areas before precinct returns come in.

Ascension        67%
Bossier                 73%
Caddo                   67%
Calcasieu               69%
East Baton Rouge        70%
Jefferson               79%
Lafayette               72%
Lafourche               68%
Livingston              71%
Orleans                 44%
Ouachita                63%
Rapides                 67%
St Landry               56%
St Tammany              82%
Tangipahoa              66%
Terrebonne              73%

Louisiana Senate

There are currently 22 Republicans and 17 Democrats in the Louisiana Senate. The Republicans are guaranteed a majority before a single vote is cast, as 15 of the Republicans are unopposed, and in 7 more Republican held districts, there are Republican on Republican races. Only in the seat held by John Smith (R-Leesville) do you have a Democrat contesting a Republican held seat, but Smith’s main opponent is another Republican: former senator James David Cain. Furthermore, Republicans have already picked up two seats: (1) the term limited seat of Willie Mount (D-Lake Charles) – former state representative Ronnie Johns (R-Sulphur) filed without opposition, and (2) the seat of term limited senator “Butch” Gautreaux (D-Morgan City), where two Republicans are running.

Even with this assured majority, Republicans are on the offensive, as they are targeting two term senator Ben Nevers (D-Bogalusa), whose 66-28% Vitter district to the north and east of Hammond is not secure Democratic territory. Also in the GOP’s sights is Eric Lafleur (D-Ville Platte), whose district between Alexandria and Opelousas voted 59-33% for David Vitter. Finally, Republican newcomer Garrett Monti (R-Luling) is challenging Democratic state representative Gary Smith (D-Norco) for the term limited seat held by Joel Chaisson II (D-Destrehan). This district is less heavily Republican: it voted 54-41% for David Vitter. Republican victories in any combination of these three seats would certainly be a sign of success for the Louisiana GOP. There are also two black majority districts where the racial split is close enough to 50/50 that stronger white turnout could lift Republican candidates to victory: the newly created district in the River Parishes (four Democrats and two Republicans are running), and a redrawn district stretching from Alexandria to Ruston where a Republican faces two black Democrats.

Senate contests also have two additional subplots: (1) Republican/conservative groups are targeting Republicans they believe are not sufficiently favorable to their agenda, like Dale Erdey (R-Livingston) and Sherri Cheek (R-Keithville), (2) two former black state senators want their old jobs back in districts with significant white minorities. Greg Tarver (D-Shreveport) is challenging two term incumbent Lydia Jackson (D-Shreveport), while Don Cravins Sr. (D-Opelousas) is challenging freshman Elbert Guillory (D-Opelousas). Both of these races feature a third candidate who may siphon away enough votes to force a runoff in one or both races.

Louisiana House

There are currently 57 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents in the Louisiana House. In this chamber, you have more competitive seats, although Republicans are expected to maintain (and even expand) their majority. Some of that competitiveness is being driven by newly seats created between Lafayette and Slidell. These races could be the subject of several articles, so we will analyze the major ones through four prisms:

(1)   Democrats seriously contesting open Republican seats: there are a handful of races where retiring/term limited Republicans are seeing serious Democratic candidacies. In north Louisiana, Noble Ellington (R-Winnsboro) decided to retire, and Democratic businessman Cleve Womack (who ran in 2007 and got 48% of the vote) is running against Republican sheriff Steve Pylant in a 69-24% Vitter district. A whopping 15% (one of the highest percentage statewide) of registered voters have already voted. In St. John Parish, retiring representative Nickie Monica (R-La Place) had the distinction of being one of three Republicans whose districts voted for Barack Obama. His district was redrawn to have a black majority (Barack Obama got 63% here) and is a guaranteed Democratic pickup – no Republican filed. Early voting has been similarly heavy here, with 13% of the vote already being cast. Up in the Felicianas, retiring Tom McVea (R-St. Francisville) saw his district redrawn to be more Democratic friendly (Vitter’s percentage was reduced from 58-36 to 53-41%), and five candidates (three Republicans and two Democrats) are contesting this seat;

(2)   Democrats seriously challenging a Republican incumbent: One Republican has a stiff challenge: freshman Republican Rick Nowlin (R-Natchitoches), whose district was redrawn to be majority black. However, looks can be deceiving: on closer inspection, the 55% black voting majority vanishes due to differences in voting intensity: in both the 2007 and 2010 elections, you actually had white voting majorities. Furthermore, in 2007, Rep. Nowlin (astonishingly for a Republican) received over 60% of the black vote in his old district. Even though he has two black opponents this year, 10-20% of the black vote would assure him a first primary victory. So he’s in better shape than the political pundits looking purely at surface demographics would suggest, although the early vote was the heaviest in the entire state– 16% of voters have already cast a ballot;

(3)   Republicans seriously contesting open Democratic seats: Republicans have already picked up two Democratic held open seats: those of retiring Chris Roy, Jr (D-Alexandria) and term limited Damon Baldone (D-Houma), as only Republican races are competing for those seats. In addition, Republicans have serious candidates for the seats of retiring Democrats Bobby Badon (D-Carencro) and Reed Henderson (D-Violet) – Henderson’s seat has seen heavy (15% of voters) early voting. Plus, term limited Gary Smith (D-Norco) saw his district redrawn to be a conservative friendly district that voted 67-28% for David Vitter. Finally, there is a newly drawn black majority district in Baton Rouge where two serious black Republicans are running. What helps their candidacies is that in prior elections, lower minority turnouts have produced an electorate that is over 40% white. With that demographic breakdown, you are theoretically within the range where a black Republican can be competitive;

(4)   Finally, a natural outgrowth over conservative groups’ being more aggressive in pursuing legislative gains is that they feel confident enough to target Democratic incumbents in districts that once were forbidding territory for Republicans. In Central Louisiana, freshmen Democrats James Armes (D-Leesville) and Robert Johnson (D-Marksville) narrowly defeated Republican opponents in 2007, and they similarly face stiff challenges from Republicans this year. In Acadiana, freshmen Democrats Jack Montoucet (D-Scott) and Bernard LeBas (D-Ville Platte) similarly face Republican challenges in areas where President Obama is a noticeable drag on local Democrats, as was evidenced by the Vitter and Dardenne percentages last year.

All in all, these races (from governor to the legislative races) will be interesting to watch. JMC Enterprises of Louisiana will have post election analyses, and, of course, will be updating the profile of each district for those who were victorious in the primary.

Since Governor Jindal faces nine minor opponents, his challenge is that of the expectations game: how much over 50% will he get? In these types of races, it’s not unreasonable to expect that eight of the nine challengers will pull 2-3% apiece, while his most relatively visible opponent (Tara Hollis) will get 15-20% of the vote. Assuming this happens, this puts Governor Jindal at about 60% of the vote, which for a Republican in Louisiana is not unreasonable.

The Lt Governor and Secretary of State races are next. Both races are Republican on Republican challenges, although the Lt Governor’s race has been the higher wattage one. In that race, you have a well known incumbent (Jay Dardenne) facing a well financed opponent (Billy Nungesser). While polls taken show Dardenne with varying leads, it is the Democratic vote which will determine the winner. For Secretary of State, Democratic voters are similarly in a position of influence: their choice is either low key incumbent Tom Schedler (who assumed the job when Jay Dardenne was elected Lt Governor last year) or term-limited House Speaker Jim Tucker.

Beyond that, the Republican incumbents for Agriculture (Mike Strain) and Insurance (Jim Donelon) face minor opposition and, like Governor Jindal, face the “expectations game” of what percentage of the vote they can receive as incumbent Republicans.

Meanwhile, 7 out of the 8 BESE races are competitive as, for the first time, business interests are taking a serious interest in BESE elections. Three of the races (District 3 in south Louisiana, District 5 in northeast Louisiana, and District 7 in southwest Louisiana) will definitely be settled this Saturday because only two candidates are running. There is a strong possibility that the two black majority districts (District 2 in New Orleans and District 8 between Baton Rouge and Lafayette) will go into a runoff. Beyond that, Republican incumbents Chas Roemer of Baton Rouge and Jim Garvey of Metairie may or may not face runoffs in a multicandidate race. Their challenge is simply that of name recognition – BESE races traditionally got “crowded out” on the ballot because statewide and legislative races on the ballot typically got the lion’s share of a voter’s attention – until this year.

So what will turnout be? There are two predictive models we have developed and used. We initially predicted a statewide turnout of 27-29%. Our basis for that prediction was the relatively small number of last minute voter registrations: in a “high wattage” election, it’s been shown that the number of people wanting to register to vote spikes before the deadline. If you go back in time to the Edwards/Duke runoff in November 1991, 67,000 individuals registered to vote at the last minute (the volume of last minute registrants was a tamer 8,600 this year).

The second metric we used for predicting statewide turnout was early voting volume, since in the recent past, you have had a fairly consistent percentage of the voters who prefer to vote before Election Day. Using that metric, we are predicting a 37% statewide turnout.

So which metric is more accurate? In the analysis we performed on the second metric , we noted that both parties pushed to get their voters to vote early. Additionally, you have the complication of a 2:30 home game between LSU and Auburn, which will add some unpredictability as to voter turnout in and around Baton Rouge for most of the day. For these reasons, plus the very high turnout in rural parishes (three small parishes have seen over 20% of the vote already cast, while in 20 more parishes, 10% of the vote has already been cast), we’re thinking that 20% of the vote cast being early/absentee voters is not an unreasonable assumption. In “wonk free” English, that ratio equates to a 29% statewide voter turnout. Which model is most correct? That will be something that we can’t assess until all votes are counted Saturday night.

In the next installment, we will discuss what to look for with regards to (1) how to gauge Governor Jindal’s strength early on, and (2) legislative races worth watching.