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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2016 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. In this analysis, there will be a a practical application of those population shifts by demonstrating the impact on Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with […]

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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2016 population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While Louisiana’s population growth […]

Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?

Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]

Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, revisited

Back in October, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed voter registration statistics in all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes to determine whether the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the […]

Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?

The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]

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(Runoff) In person early voting has concluded in Louisiana

In person early voting has now concluded, although mail in/absentee ballots (typically 3-5% of early voting volume) will still be accepted throughout next week. The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What did the early voting numbers tell us? (Still) […]

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Decision 2016 – (Halftime Report for) Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

In person has now been underway for several days for the December 10 runoff and will continue until this Saturday (December 3). The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What are we seeing so far, after three days of early voting ? (Still) […]

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Decision 2016 – (First Day of) Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

In person early voting started yesterday for the December 10 runoff and will continue until next Saturday, December 3. The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? Dismal early voting turnout While early […]

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Decision 2016 – In person early voting has concluded in Louisiana

In person early voting concluded last night for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana, although mail in absentee ballots are still being accepted for several more days. What has early voting told us about voter turnout/which voters are turning out ? Record early voting turnout As of last night, 515,181 early voted, which is a new record that […]

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Decision 2016 – (Halftime Report for) Early Voting in Louisiana

In person early voting has now been underway for three days for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana and will continue until next Tuesday, November 1 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What have three days of early voting told us with regards to voter turnout? Record early voting turnout […]

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