2012 promises to be a busy election year for the various federal, state, and local offices on the ballot this year. Part of that activity includes yard signs, political commercials, bumper stickers, and public opinion polls to be conducted for races big and small. [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 568 (55%), Santorum 273 (27%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 50, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
Presidential Contest 3/24 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = white)
Louisiana Primary – the Republican contest [...]
Presidential –
Presidential Contest 3/21 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = tan)
Illinois Primary [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 495 (53%), Santorum 252 (27%), Gingrich 131, Ron Paul 48, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 3/14 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
Presidential
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 415 (56%), Santorum 176 (24%), Gingrich 105, Ron Paul 47, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 3/7 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Last night, 10 states held their Presidential contests, and the results seem to indicate two things: (1) the Republican primary contest is very much still in play, and (2) the demographic battle lines are solidifying in terms of bases of support for each candidate. Frontrunner Mitt Romney’s coalition includes moderate/liberal Republicans on either coast, affluent urban neighborhoods, Western voters, and Mormons. Rick Santorum now has a national base of religious voters, middle income suburbs, and small towns, with one important exception: portions of the Deep South with a large percentage of native Southerners – that voter bloc is still solidly behind Newt Gingrich. [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 123, Santorum 72, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 19, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 48-48% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 2/23 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Ever since the “mini Tuesday” Presidential contests of Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, the Presidential race has been relatively quiet. The Maine caucuses did conclude shortly thereafter, and while Romney eked out a narrow 39-36% victory over Ron Paul, this was, comparatively speaking, not an impressive victory for Romney. He carried Maine 51-18% over Ron Paul in 2008 (John McCain received 21%). One small consolation for the Republicans: turnout was 20% higher than it was in the 2008 caucuses. [...]
Presidential
UPDATE 1/11 PM The New Hampshire primary has concluded, and Mitt Romney won a clear victory with 39% of the vote – this from a state that only gave him 32% of the vote and a second place showing in 2008. As with Iowa, the conservative vote remained splintered. Unlike Iowa, the New Hampshire Republican electorate is less hospitable to conservatives (particularly Southern and/or social conservatives), and as such, Romney mostly had the more moderate electorate to himself. [...]
Looking Back
Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided. [...]
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