We had noted after the primary that BESE races were a continual source of frustration for conservatives and/or education reformers, as their candidates usually could not compete against a formidable coalition of populist Democratic voters that included blacks, teachers unions, and those connected to state or local governments.

In 2011, the business community, with Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby as their quarterback, decided to invest their resources in the BESE races. These efforts were met with success: in the October primary, three incumbents were defeated, and three more races went into a runoff. The reformers’ similarly scored a clean sweep in the runoff elections, as their candidates (one Republican and two black Democrats) defeated their opponents, who were strongly supported by the teachers unions.

What makes these victories notable was that, for once, the teachers unions had very little clout in the broader black community outside of the traditional black power structure. The most notable example of this was in District 8 (which covers territory between Baton Rouge and Lafayette), where political newcomer Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat) received 58% of the runoff vote. The way she achieved this victory was a good case study of the rise of new political coalitions.

In the primary, Hill faced three opponents. One (Domoine Rutledge) was supported by the teachers unions and traditional black political leaders. Another (Russell Armstrong) was co endorsed by the business lobby. There was also a white Independent named Jimmy Guillory. In the past, the result would have been preordained: Rutledge would have faced Guillory in the runoff, and Rutledge would have then received 55-60% of the runoff vote (about 60% of the voters are black).

That’s not what happened in this race. In the primary, Carolyn Hill built a multiracial coalition of moderate black politicians and Christian conservatives. This, combined with the co endorsement of the main business group, enabled her to garner 20% of the white vote and 33% of the black vote in the primary. Rutledge actually ran last, despite his  support from unions/most black political leaders, as he only received 36% of the black vote and 9% of the white vote. In the runoff, Hill was able to expand her base with white voters by getting an impressive 33% of that voter bloc. Because she was not the preferred choice of traditional black political organizations/politicians, she only received 80% of the black vote (historically, blacks in contested races against a white candidate received at least 90% of the black vote). This is an impressive coalition she assembled, because this district historically was a populist union/Democratic stronghold.

The black electorate exhibited similar independence in the BESE race for the black majority district in New Orleans/the River Parishes, although in this case, two black Democrats made the runoff. While the incumbent, Louella Givens, had the support of the teachers unions, she had the baggage of a 1.3 million dollar tax lien on her house and a DWI arrest, while her opponent, Teach For America executive Kira Orange Jones, had the endorsements of Senator Mary Landrieu, retiring Senate President Joel Chaisson, and several other black elected officials. In the primary, Jones actually led 39-31% by essentially running even in the black community (she trailed only 36-37% against Givens) and amassing an impressive 63-14% lead with the white vote. This coalition enabled Jones to defeat the incumbent 57-43% in the runoff, which was attained by Jones’ getting 71% of the white vote and 44% of the black vote.

The reformers’ third victory was in District 6 (Baton Rouge/the Florida Parishes), where first term Republican incumbent (and the ringleader of the reformers) Chas Roemer scored a 57-43% win over Donald Songy, who had the wholehearted endorsement of the teachers unions. This victory was not unexpected, however, as there were Republican votes to spare – Vitter carried this district 68-26% last year.

In conclusion, the BESE races were noteworthy for two reasons: (1) education reform (in terms of charter schools, school choice, performance grading of schools, and the like) is an issue that both unites the disparate elements of the conservative bloc and separates a black voters from the teachers unions; (2) the old political paradigm of black candidates’ only being electorally viable if they have the express consent of the network of ministers and politicians has been discredited. Ironically, this is an unintended consequence of the creation of more “majority minority” districts – these new districts now have a significant minority of white voters whose votes now must be sought by black politicians if they want to win. Carolyn Hill and Kira Orange Jones clearly recognized this new electoral reality, while their opponents did not.

In the next installment, we will discuss the legislative races. Below is the map of BESE districts in effect for the 2011 elections.

BESE Districts

Certainly no one had a better night than Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby. And for good reason: three incumbents were defeated, and three more races were pushed into a runoff. Historically, BESE has been one of those elected offices that not only got little attention (they share the ballot with statewide and legislative races), but was a continual source of frustration for conservatives, as Democrats allied with teachers unions historically dominated these races – Republicans weren’t even elected to the BESE board until 2003, and it wasn’t until 2007 that they even seriously contested a majority of the seats.

There were two reasons for this: (1) Because BESE is an unpaid position, not many people other than teachers unions and educational administrators used to care about who sat on the board, (2) until 2011, the business community didn’t pay much attention to those races.

That changed this year when construction contractor Lane Grigsby (whose mantra is “get into politics or get out of business”), decided to get involved, because of his belief that the public education system in Louisiana was broken. His involvement in this (and other races in the past) was no laughing matter: last year, for example, he provided the resources to help knock three incumbents off the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board. His motivation is simple: he goes after incumbents who he believes “don’t understand they’re supposed to be public servants.” That, combined with his desire to end teacher tenure (he noted that “it’s ten times harder to fire a teacher than it is for a lawyer to lose their license.”) motivated him into the BESE arena.

How did he do? In a board of 8 elected members (an additional 3 are appointed), only two incumbents were re-elected. One (recent party convert Walter Lee of Shreveport) was unopposed, while favorable incumbent Jim Garvey (R-Metairie) was re-elected in the primary with 58% of the vote. Each of the remaining six districts has its own story to tell:

BESE Districts

Defeated Incumbents:

In District 3 (south Louisiana between New Orleans and Lafayette), Democratic incumbent Glenny Lee Buquet lost 56-44% to Republican Lottie Beebe, despite the fact that Governor Jindal supported the Democratic incumbent. What happened? In this case, we believe it was Buquet’s Democratic Party label. In the two parishes (Terrebonne and Lafourche) that were most familiar with the incumbent, Buquet received 55% of the vote. In the rest of the district, 62% favored the Republican challenger. Since this is an area where the oil industry is a vital part of the economy, we believe that the drilling moratorium, and the resultant drop off in terms of Democratic Party identity, contributed to this large Republican vote. There was another contributing factor to Buquet’s defeat: even though the district is 20% black by voter registration, black turnout was significantly lower, and the Republican challenger got 19% of the black vote.

District 5 covers northeast Louisiana, and in this case, freshman Democrat Keith Guice lost 55-45% to Republican Jay Guillot – Guice was one of Grigsby’s targets. The demographics behind Guillot’s victory are just as fascinating: despite Guice having a base in the Republican stronghold of Ouachita Parish (he received 49% in a parish where Democrats are lucky to get 40%) and several rural parishes near Alexandria, Guillot was bolstered by a 58% vote out of Rapides Parish (Alexandria) and a strong vote in most of the rural parishes. It also didn’t hurt that Guillot got 14% of the black vote, and their turnout intensity was roughly half that of whites (white turnout was 37%, while black turnout was 20%).

District 7 covers southwest Louisiana, and in this case, you had a 12 year Democratic incumbent (Dale Bayard) quietly switch parties earlier this year, despite his being considered favorable to teachers unions. Nevertheless, he was another Grigsby target, and Republican political newcomer Holly Boffy soundly defeated Bayard 67-33%. Not only did Boffy carry every parish, but she even prevailed 63-37% in Bayard’s home parish of Calcasieu (Lake Charles).

Runoffs:

District 2 is one of two black majority districts. The district includes New Orleans and some of the River Parishes. Two term incumbent Louella Givens (who herself defeated an incumbent in 2003) trailed challenger Kira Orange Jones 39-31%. Jones, who sported the endorsements of Senator (and New Orleans native) Mary Landrieu and the Alliance for Good Government, also was helped by the legal and tax problems of Givens (she had a DWI arrest and a 1.3 million dollar tax lien placed on her house). This is an interesting exhibition of the black community’s growing independence from the teachers unions, who lined up behind Givens. Givens had a tepid 37-36% lead in the black precincts (a slightly larger 41-33% in New Orleans), while with the white vote, Jones led 63-14%. Givens is in trouble in the runoff.

District 8 is the second black majority district that includes the black communities in Baton Rouge and Lafayette, as well as some rural parishes with a significant black population. This was an open seat, and four candidates (three of whom are black) ran. Despite the fact that Domoine Rutledge (attorney for the EBR School System) had the support of the teachers unions, he finished last with 21%. Making the runoff were Carolyn Hill (a black Democrat who is a certified social worker and is pro school reform) and Independent Jimmy Guillory. This was an interesting race because Hill ran without the support of teachers unions and traditional black political groups; instead, she built a biracial coalition. She is in a strong position for the runoff.

Finally, the champion of reform was incumbent Republican Chas Roemer (District 6 incumbent), who was strongly backed by Grigsby. Though forced into a runoff with a 45-29% lead over Democrat Donald Songy, the remaining 26% of the voters supported a Republican, and Roemer only needs a fraction of that vote to win. In fact, his runoff strategy is simple: (1) add to his already large 56-26% lead over Songy in East Baton Rouge Parish (not too tough to do, since the East Baton Rouge precincts in the district are 14% black), (2) consolidate the Republican vote in the suburban/rural parishes along I-12, where Roemer only led 38-25% (the other Republican received the remaining 36%).

In conclusion, there were several interesting features about the BESE races this year: (1) without a contested governor’s race to distract voters, the conservative nature of Louisianians finally made itself apparent in these races, (2) the fact that pro school choice/educational reform candidates had the resources to compete for the first time, and (3) the reality (apparent from the data) that blacks are no longer a rock solid part of the traditional Democratic coalition (unions, government employees, blacks, and trial lawyers) in Louisiana, and in fact are receptive to reform minded candidates.

We had noted before that there was a sense that the Louisiana Democratic Party, which as recently as 2005 controlled every statewide office, would be irrelevant in this year’s political climate.  And Republican legislative victories in areas that once gave Edwin Edwards over 70% of the vote, combined with a deluge of party switches in the wake of the 2010 elections, added to that prevailing wisdom. This was the political context for the aggressive targeting from  Senator Vitter and Governor Jindal of Democratic open seats and/or incumbent Democratic legislators. Additionally, the TEA Party targeted Republican legislators they thought were not sufficiently conservative. Were they successful?

Senate

In the Louisiana Senate, no incumbent Democrat was defeated outside of reapportionment (although two term incumbent Ben Nevers of Bogalusa was held to 51%). And for that matter, no incumbent Republican legislator was defeated either, despite the efforts of the TEA Party. In fact, the closest Republican race was that of two term incumbent Bob Kostelka, who was held to 52%, even though the TEA Party was not explicitly involved in that race.

From a partisan perspective, the balance in the Senate is set now at 24 Republicans and 15 Democrats. There are four runoffs remaining: two are in black district districts in Shreveport and Lafayette/Opelousas where former incumbents are seeking a comeback. A third runoff is in a newly created black majority district in the River Parishes. The final runoff is a Republican on Republican race along the Texas border where an incumbent backed by Governor Jindal faces the former occupant of the seat. Though the district gave 76% of the vote to Governor Jindal, the balance of power is in the 25% who voted for the Democrat, so this will be an interesting runoff to watch.

House

The partisan picture is less clear in the House. Just like the Senate, no incumbent of either party lost outside of reapportionment, even though the Republicans targeted several Democratic seats. As of right now, 49 Republicans have been elected (a majority is 53 out of 105 members), as have 34 Democrats and an Independent (“Dee” Richard of Thibodaux). If you include the 21 runoffs where you have Republican/Republican or Democrat/Democrat races, the partisan balance becomes 54 Republicans, 41 Democrats, and an Independent. Depending on the outcome of the runoffs, you are looking at a Republican delegation of between 54 and 62 Republicans (the current breakdown is 57 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents).

Looking ahead

Even though the GOP’s targeting efforts did not seem to produce the windfall they hoped for (arguably, party switchers removed most of the “low hanging fruit”), the GOP still has time on their side: their best strategy is to use term limits and/or vacated Democratic seats as their source of additional legislative seats. For instance, Senator Ben Nevers (D-Bogalusa) was re-elected with 51% of the vote, and his district voted 66-28% for David Vitter. He is term limited in 2015. His seat should be the Republicans’ top priority, particularly since his district contains parts of St Tammany and Tangipahoa that are seeing a steady influx of decidedly Republican residents from Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

On the House side, there are three GOP favorable seats whose Democratic incumbents are term limited: Jim Fannin (D-Jonesboro), Mickey Guillory (D-Eunice), and Harold Ritchie (D-Bogalusa). All three of these districts gave David Vitter over 60% of the vote and should be the Republicans’ top priority for pickups.

Enter the black Republicans

As a final thought, six black Republicans ran for legislative seats. How did they fare ? While none of them were elected (or even made the runoff), their performance last night was promising: all got between 14 and 26% of the vote, and if you allow for the fact that a house district in Baton Rouge had two black Republicans running, that district gave 30% of its vote to a black Republican. So while the efforts seem fruitless this year, this is light years ahead of 2007, when three black Republicans ran for the legislature, and all received between 8 and 12% of the vote. In other words, by the time the next reapportionment election comes around (and maybe even before that), black Republicans will be viable politically in Louisiana.

In the interest of space, we will discuss in the next installment the BESE races and how Baton  Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby is someone who has established himself on the political scene by accomplishing something that has continually eluded conservative/business interests in the past.

Statewide elected officials

The conventional wisdom after qualifying was that “Democrats need not apply” for elected office. This was largely true at the statewide level (we will later discuss how this was NOT the case with legislative races). Democrats essentially sat out on the statewide elections: no Democrat of any significance (i.e., an elected official or a public figure) filed for a statewide office, and in two races (Lt Governor and Secretary of State) Republicans were left to fight it out amongst themselves.

Governor Bobby Jindal was the big winner last night: he was re-elected with an astounding 66% of the vote. He carried all 64 parishes, and in 59 of those parishes, he received an absolute majority. This is a record percentage for a Republican governor – not even Mike Foster attained that percentage in his 1999 re-election. When you examine the data at a more granular level, you begin to appreciate that this was not a broad based landslide. The first noteworthy number (from an examination of selected precincts across the state) was the 19% of the black vote Jindal received. This is certainly impressive for a Republican, although it didn’t hurt that their 19% turnout was significantly less than the overall statewide turnout of 36%. The second item of interest was that, buried in the landslide, was the governor’s unenthusiastic reception from parishes with a large number of state workers (particularly prison employees). In his home parish of East Baton Rouge, for instance, his 51% of the vote was actually a decrease in support relative to his 2007 performance. Similarly, in the Felicianas, he received about 50%, while in Avoyelles, he received 43% (Vitter defeated Melancon 56-36% there last year).

Jindal 2011 By Parish

The next race of interest was the Lt Governor’s race. Incumbent Republican Jay Dardenne was elected to the position in 2010 after its former incumbent was elected Mayor of New Orleans. In this race, Dardenne turned back a stiff (and well funded) challenge from fellow Republican Billy Nungesser. What was interesting about this race was that many Republican activists were vocally opposed to the incumbent, and Nungesser spent a significant amount of money getting on the election day ballots that are a commonplace on Election Day in many black neighborhoods across the state. In 2011, this action gained him little: in the parishes we examined, Dardenne received 51% of the black vote. He (Dardenne) also received a strong 64% of the vote out of the Baton Rouge area, where he has been a familiar presence for decades (he was first elected to public office in 1988; before that, he was on the Labor Day Telethon for years).

So how did Dardenne win? In addition to the 51% of the black vote he received, he had the benefit of a broad base of support (he carried 46 parishes). Nungesser did carry every parish in the New Orleans media market and just about everything along the coast between New Orleans and the Mermentau River. But that was the extent of his electoral appeal, which understandably was a natural offshoot of his television exposure after the oil spill.

Incumbent Secretary of State Tom Schedler (who assumed the office when Jay Dardenne was elected Lt Governor in 2010) was the apparent winner by a razor thin 8,500 vote margin over term limited House Speaker Jim Tucker. This was another two Republican race.

Further down the ballot, the incumbent commissioner of agriculture and insurance (who were both Republicans) were comfortably re-elected with 67% of the vote against minor opposition. The remaining incumbents (again, all Republicans) were re-elected without opposition.

In our next installment, we will discuss the BESE and legislative races. One item we plan to discuss: why was Baton Rouge contractor Lane Grigsby the biggest winner last night?

Low turnout

Yesterday’s turnout was 23,307. What does this volume of early voting mean? Given the fact that the first day is typically the busiest day, we project at the present time that by Election Day, there will be about 119,200 early votes. This figure is 14% less than early voting was for the 2007 statewide primary, and at the present time would suggest a 40% statewide voter turnout.

Does this projection contradict our earlier prediction of a 27-29% turnout? It’s far too early to tell, for two reasons: (1) we  know from historical data that early voting for the next six days will be lower than yesterday’s figures, but the extent to which there will be a “plunge” is not yet known, (2) early voting was very high in the rural parishes; we think that local and/or legislative races brought a disproportionate number of voters to the polls in those parishes yesterday and therefore will result in some “front loaded” early voting, (3) you have a complicating factor – an LSU home game against Florida, which we think contributed to an extremely low early vote in East Baton Rouge Parish (the projected early vote based on yesterday’s numbers was 67% less than it was in 2007).

Below is a map ahowing those parishes where early voting was noticeably high (Note: “Very high EV volume” is wherever projected turnout based on early voting volume exceeded 100%, while “High EV volume” is wherever projected turnout based on early voting volume exceeded 50%)

Early voting volume as of October 8

Strong Democratic vote

Somewhat surprisingly, there was a Democratic tilt to yesterday’s early voters: 58% of yesterday’s early voters were Democrats, and 30% were Republicans. This is a figure significantly higher than it was in the 2007 statewide elections (the early voters then were 52-36% Democratic). In fact, this breakdown is eerily similar to the early voting for the 2008 Presidential election (early voting then was 58-28% Democratic).

Similarly, 31% of early voters yesterday were black – a percentage roughly double what it was in 2007. In fact, the only time early voting was higher than 31% was in the 2008 Presidential election. Part of this is certainly due to local races like sheriff and police juror/parish council, but the additional fact is there are quite a few competitive legislative races in black majority districts.

Why do we make a big deal about early voting? When the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting several years ago, you now have a noticeable constituency of people who prefer the convenience of early voting, and this constituency has thus far ranged from 10 to 14% – a politician would be foolish to ignore this many voters, especially in a closely contested race. Also, too, early voting numbers are the first ones that are typically reported after polls have closed at 8 PM.

We will keep an eye on early voting volume, and update you as to the status throughout the week.

West Virginia Governor

While early voting in Louisiana “kicks off” this Saturday for the October 22 primary, West Virginia is actually holding an election tomorrow. The Democratic “incumbent” is Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin, who became governor when former governor Joe Manchin was elected to the Senate seat held by the late Robert Byrd last year. His Republican opponent is a businessman named Bill Maloney. The race has considerably tightened in recent days, as a 46-40% lead that the Democrat once held has tightened to 47-46% in a poll released today. Though in Presidential elections, West Virginia has moved considerably to the right in the last decade, Democrats still dominate locally – only two Republicans have been elected governor since the onset of the Great Depression.

Louisiana Statewide Primary

In Louisiana, in person early voting starts this Saturday and continues until Saturday, October 15 (mail in ballots will still be accepted up to the Friday before Election Day). Those politically engaged are naturally interested in what turnout will be, and who will show up. This election is unlike prior statewide elections, because you have a state Democratic Party that, for the first time, has essentially decided not to compete at the statewide level – only minor candidates are running in the races for Governor, Insurance Commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner.

To best assess the issue of turnout quantity, we will examine in person early voting as it progresses, and will make turnout projections. From looking at early voting in the past, we have seen that there is some correlation between the early voting volume and the resulting turnout. For example, in the 2007 statewide primary (when Governor Jindal was elected without a runoff), about 139,000 early voted, and the overall turnout was 1.32 million – in other words, a 47% voter turnout. In the 2010 general election (the race where Senator Vitter was comfortably re-elected over Charlie Melancon, and Jay Dardenne was easily elected Lt. Governor), early voting was slightly less (125,000 early voted), and turnout was similarly a little lower – 1.3 million, or 44%, turned out.

So what should I read into the early voting statistics? Typically, the first day of early voting brings out a relatively large crowd of early voters (although the LSU/Florida game currently scheduled at 2:30 PM in Tiger Stadium has the potential to affect the first day early voting turnout). The early voting volume then plunges for the rest of the week, although you typically have an uptick near the conclusion of early voting. As early voting progresses, we will continually adjust our turnout estimates. Is our method accurate? In last year’s Senate race, our final projection was of a 40% voter turnout, and 44% actually showed up.

What will the Democratic turnout be in the primary? With the major exception of the 2008 Presidential election (which had a massive pro Obama turnout), we have seen that since the inception of in person early voting, Democrats typically face a 5-8% enthusiasm gap during early voting week when compared against those who show up to vote on Election Day. And in the 2007 statewide primary, Democratic enthusiasm was particularly weak – 16% of early voters/24% of all voters were black (compared to a 30% black voter registration). It is this yardstick we will be using as early voting progresses to make turnout assumptions for the October 22 primary election.

October Elections

While the Louisiana race is on everyone’s mind (more on that later), West Virginia has a special election on October 4 for governor, where the appointed Democrat (Earl Ray Tomblin) faces a stiff challenge from Republican businessman Bill Maloney. Louisiana is holding its elections on Saturday, October 22 (in person early voting is from October 8-15). This is an election where Democrats appear to be focused on holding on to what they have, rather than lining up candidates to challenge each and every Republican. In all the statewide races, no Democrat of any significance signed up, and those Democrats who did show up are only offering minor challenges in the race for Governor, Insurance Commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner.

A similar scenario is shaping up in the legislature. Not only did scores of legislators run unopposed (at press time, 20 senators out of 39 are unopposed, while 42 out of 105 representatives are unopposed), but there have been candidate withdrawals even after last week’s withdrawal deadline (so far, 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans have withdrawn).

What is not mentioned (but should be) is that there just isn’t a lot of interest in legislative or statewide elections this year. For example, even though 82 legislative seats (19 in the Senate and 63 in the House) will be competitive, (9/21/2011 PM UPDATE) at least 48 (35 in the House and 13 in the Senate) of those 82 races will be settled in October, because only two candidates are running. In practical terms, this means the maximum number of legislative runoffs possible is 34 (28 in the House and 6 in the Senate). When you compare this to the 46 legislative runoffs (36 in the House and 10 in the Senate) that Louisiana had in November 2007, you begin to realize that this will be one of the quieter election cycles.

November Elections

Louisiana’s elections take a back seat to the rest of the nation on November 8, as you have governor’s races in Kentucky and Mississippi. There are also legislative races in Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

In Mississippi, Democrats are similarly disengaged (according to Brett Kittredge at Majority in Mississippi, Democrats are not contesting three statewide races, while in two other races, they have weak candidates), and the Republican Lt. Governor is a shoo in for the Governor’s chair that is being vacated by Haley Barbour. There is a little more suspense to legislative races, as Republicans control the Senate, while Democrats control the House. An interesting subplot is that neither party could agree on legislative reapportionment, so elections are being held under the 2001 district lines.

In Kentucky, the incumbent Democratic governor has managed to compile a record favorable to most voters, and it appears that he is able to deflect the negative opinions that most Kentucky voters have about President Obama and national Democrats. In fact, the campaign manager for his Republican opponent actually said that he was “hoping and praying for resources.” The last poll we have available shows the Democrat leading 55-26%.

In Virginia and New Jersey, legislative elections are being held. Republicans control the House (but not the Senate) in Virginia, and Republicans are obviously hoping to take the Senate back. On the other hand, in New Jersey, a state that elected Chris Christie governor in 2009 returned a solidly Democratic legislature to power, and Republicans are hoping to change that in this year’s elections.

If runoffs are necessary in Louisiana, the runoff date will be November 19 (in person early voting is from November 5-12).

2012 Elections

Once the fall elections have concluded, our focus will turn to the 2012 Presidential election season.

Statewide Elected Officials

The Governor’s race was notable more for who did NOT run: despite last minute rumors, John Georges (who ran for Governor in 2007) decided by mid afternoon that he wasn’t going to jump in. That means that Governor Jindal faces nine minor opponents, of whom four are Democrats, four are Independents, and one is a Libertarian. Given the caliber of the opposition, this race probably will cause statewide turnout to be in the 40-45% range. When early voting occurs in four weeks, we will revise those predictions, based on the early voting volume.

Outside of the Governor’s race, only Republican Treasurer John Kennedy escaped any opposition. The Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General’s races will all face head to head Republican matchups, and will thus be decided in October. Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne faces Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser. Appointed Secretary of State Tom Schedler will face a challenge from House Speaker Jim Tucker, while Attorney General Buddy Caldwell will face former Congressman Joseph Cao.

Commissioner of Insurance Jim Donelon (a Republican) will face Democrat Donald Hodge, while Commissioner of Agriculture Mike Strain received opposition from Democrat Jamie LaBranche and Reform candidate Belinda Alexandrenko. 

BESE

Democrats put up a little more fight with the BESE board, as they contested 5 of 8 seats. This historically has been a Democratic dominated board that received little attention on election day, since these races had to share the spotlight with the statewide and legislative races. This year, business groups and education reformers recruited heavily, and Republicans are contesting 6 of 8 seats. Only recent party convert Walter Lee of Shreveport escaped opposition.

Legislature

(UPDATED 8/14/2011) The GOP’s candidate recruitment efforts were generally very successful: they fielded candidates in a record 105 (out of 144) legislative districts, with candidates in 73 House races and 31 Senate races.

(UPDATED 8/14/2011)  In general, however, there was not a lot of competition for these districts: 20 Senators and 42 representatives were unopposed.

House

(UPDATED 8/14/2011)  Currently, the Louisiana House has 57 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 Independents. Before a single vote has been cast, 29 Republicans (28 incumbents and 1 newcomer) have been elected, and in 17 more seats, Democrats did not enter any candidates. On the Democratic side, 13 incumbents were re-elected, and in 19 more seats, no Republican qualified. This means that the remaining 27 House seats will see partisan competition, and in at least 20 of those seats, Republicans have a decent shot at winning. Assuming no Republican seats are flipped by Democrats, the House may end up with at least 59 Republicans (so far, they have picked up the seats of term limited Houma Democrat Damon Baldone and retiring Democrat Chris Roy of Alexandria), and it’s not outside the realm of possibility to see a 66 Republican House.

Senate

Currently, the Louisiana Senate has 22 Republicans and 17 Democrats. Before a single vote has been cast, Republicans already have a 22 vote majority. 15 Republicans (13 incumbents and 2 newcomers) have already been elected, and in 7 more seats, only Republicans filed. Democrats, on the other hand, are only guaranteed 8 seats: 5 incumbents in black majority districts drew no opposition, and in 3 more races, only Democrats qualified.

This leaves 9 districts where there will be partisan competition, and in 5 of those seats, Republicans have a decent shot at winning. This means that the state senate will, at a minimum, contain between 24 Republicans and may end up with 27 Republicans. The GOP starts off with a minimum of 24 seats (assuming no Democratic pickups), since no Democrat filed in the districts once represented by two term limited Democrats (Willie Mount of Lake Charles and “Butch” Gautreaux of Morgan City).

As a final note, there was a concerted effort to get black Republicans to run, and 6 have qualified to run in 3 House and 2 Senate districts.

Statewide Elected Officials

Two Democrats filed for Governor today, Tara Hollis and Cary Deaton (who ran against Charlie Melancon last year in the Democratic primary). Other than that, no Democrats entered any other statewide races, and the Republican incumbents for Attorney General, Treasurer, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Commissioner of Insurance remain unopposed.

The only suspense right now is that there are three potential statewide candidates who will have to make their plans known tomorrow: John Georges, Scott Angelle, and Caroline Fayard.

BESE

The statewide board of education saw the 7th (out of 8 elected incumbents) incumbent qualify: Louella Givens (D-New Orleans). Other than that, it was relatively quiet: Incumbent Dale Bayard, as expected, picked up a challenge from Republican Holly Boffy, while Democrat Carolyn Hill qualified for the vacant 8^th District. So far, four incumbents (Republicans Jim Garvey and Walter Lee, and Democrats Glenny Buquet and Keith Guice) remain unopposed.

Legislature

Out of 144 legislators, we know of 110 incumbents (31 in the Senate and 79 in the House) who are running for re-election. 5 more incumbents filed today, which means that 108 of 110 incumbents running for re-election have qualified so far.

House

Of the 79 incumbents who were supposed to file for re-election, four more filed today (Roy Burrell (D-Shreveport), Chris Hazel (R-Ball), Joel Robideaux (R-Lafayette), and Scott Simon (R-Abita Springs)), which means there are no more incumbents to file for re-election. Republicans so far are contesting 68 of the 105 House seats (for comparison’s sake, they contested 67 seats in 2007), which is a record.

Incidentally, with one day left, 52 House incumbents do not have an opponent.

Senate

Of the 31 incumbents who were supposed to file for re-election, one more (Eric Lafleur (D-Ville Platte) filed today, which leaves Norby Chabert (R-Houma) and Lydia Jackson (D-Shreveport)) as the remaining holdouts. Republicans so far are contesting 27 out of 39 Senate seats (for comparison’s sake, they contested 23 seats in 2007), although once you count Norby Chabert, they are so far contesting a record 28 seats.

With one day left to qualify, 12 senators do not have an opponent.

Statewide Elected Officials

All incumbent statewide elected officials (who are Republicans) qualified today. No Democrats filed for a statewide race today, although there are still two more days of qualifying. Governor Bobby Jindal picked up three No Party challengers. The Lt Governor and Secretary of State races saw two Republicans file today. Incumbent Lt Governor Jay Dardenne will be challenged by Billy Nungesser, while Secretary of State Tom Schedler, as expected, received opposition from House Speaker Jim Tucker.

Currently, the Republican Attorney General, Treasurer, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Commissioner of Insurance are unopposed.

BESE

The statewide board of education saw 6 out of 8 elected incumbents qualify for re-election today (Linda Johnson (D-Plaquemine) is not running again, and Louella Givens (D-New Orleans) has not yet filed). The one surprise today was that in the Baton Rouge area, Republican incumbent Chas Roemer picked up both Democratic and Republican opposition.

Legislature

Out of 144 legislators, we know of 110 incumbents (31 in the Senate and 79 in the House) who are running for re-election. Nearly all incumbents filed today. Here’s what happened in each chamber:

House

Of the 79 incumbents who were supposed to file for re-election, 75 filed today (the holdouts were Roy Burrell (D-Shreveport), Chris Hazel (R-Ball), Joel Robideaux (R-Lafayette), and Scott Simon (R-Abita Springs)). Republicans so far are contesting 65 of the 105 House seats (for comparison’s sake, they contested 67 seats in 2007), although once you count Chris Hazel, Joel Robideaux, Scott Simon, and the open District 53 seat (two Republicans have announced), they are contesting a record 68 seats.

Reapportionment forced two Republican House incumbents (Nick Lorusso and John Labruzzo) from the New Orleans area to run against each other, and both filed for re-election today.

Senate

Of the 31 incumbents who were supposed to file for re-election, 28 filed today (the holdouts were Norby Chabert (R-Houma), Eric Lafleur (D-Ville Platte), and Lydia Jackson (D-Shreveport)). Republicans so far are contesting 25 of the 39 Senate seats (for comparison’s sake, they contested 23 seats in 2007), although once you count Norby Chabert, they are so far contesting a record 26 seats.

Reapportionment forced two Democratic Senate incumbents (Cynthia Willard-Lewis and J.P. Morrell) from New Orleans to run against each other, and both filed for re-election today.

Surprises

Nothing unexpected happened today, although a clerical error (which was fixed fairly quickly) showed that Jared Brossett (D-New Orleans) had filed to run for re-election both in his own seat and that of freshman Democrat Walt Leger (D-New Orleans).