In our last article, we raised the issue of projected turnout for the October 22 elections by noting that early voting volume, as well as the demographic mixture of the early voters, could paint a turnout portrait before the Secretary of State issues its turnout projections.
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionTurnout and why it matters
One of the most misunderstood areas of election analysis is the impact that turnout intensity (or lack thereof) can have on a race. For Louisiana elections, turnout intensity is most noticeable when you look at the extent to which whites and blacks vote. One of the oldest truisms in Louisiana electoral politics is that whites […]
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 3 (Things heat up – a little – on the last day)
Candidate filing has concluded in Louisiana. This was the first year in history that Democrats largely stayed away. So what happened?
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 2 (Things quiet down)
The second day of filing has concluded (the deadline to file is 5PM tomorrow). Most of the remaining “holdouts” among the incumbents did end up filing today, and some more challengers filed today as well. Overall, however, the pace was considerably slower than yesterday (40 candidates for statewide legislative office filed today, as opposed to […]
Louisiana Candidate Filing – Day 1 (“Incumbent’s Day”)
The first day of filing concluded, and nearly all incumbents who were supposed to qualify did so, although there were a fair number of challengers who filed today as well.
Going Below 50
Recently, it was reported that those registered as Democrats in Louisiana dipped below 50% for the first time since the state started maintaining party registration statistics over five decades ago. This means that of those registered to vote as of August 1, 49.6% are Democrats, 27% are Republicans, and 23% are Independents. If you analyze […]
Louisiana Senate District Political Statistics
Last week, the Senate passed a reapportionment plan for its chamber that Governor Jindal signed into law. Now that the dust has settled, what is the political impact of this new plan ? The exact political impact can’t be quantified until the fall elections, due to several intangibles: (1) the quality and quantity of candidates […]
Louisiana House District Political Statistics
Last week, the House passed a reapportionment plan for its chamber that Governor Jindal signed into law. Now that the dust has settled, what is the political impact of this new plan ? The exact political impact can’t be quantified until the fall elections, due to several intangibles: (1) the quality and quantity of candidates […]
Louisiana Congressional District Maps
Without further ado, here are the Congressional maps – we made sure to enlarge areas where parishes were split (generally, but not always, the metropolitan areas).
Louisiana Congressional District Political Statistics
At the 11th hour, the Louisiana Legislature agreed to the Congressional reapportionment plan (with amendments) of Representative Erich Ponti (R-Baton Rouge). We have analyzed the changes and have the following obervations/comments: