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Can Mary Landrieu be defeated in 2014 ?

Historically, incumbent Democratic Senators in Louisiana have rarely worried about their re-election. In fact, in the past 30 years, an incumbent Democrat has only fallen below the 60% mark twice: (1) In 1980, the late Russell Long  was re-elected  by a 58-39% margin against Woody Jenkins (who was a Democrat back then), and (2) in […]

2010 – The Year Of the Landslide ?

Introduction As the fall elections get closer, we’ve been analyzing the likely outcome based on available data like an incumbent’s voting record on controversial items (the stimulus, “cap and trade”, and healthcare reform), his/her 2008 re-election percentage, and the level of support for Barack Obama in those districts. This analysis has been performed while considering […]

The Effect of Term Limits on the 2011 Legislative Elections

Historically, the Democrats had strong majorities in both houses of the Louisiana Legislature. That began to change starting in 1995. At that time, the GOP tidal wave of 1994, which was part of a larger anti-Clinton tidal wave across the South, finally reached Louisiana. That tidal wave was further augmented by a FBI gambling probe […]

“Bayh Bayh” to the Senate Democratic majority ?

When we analyzed what we thought would happen with US House races this year, we looked at the Obama percentage in each district, the voting record of applicable House incumbents on controversial issues, and their 2008 re-election percentage. We deliberately did not perform the same analysis with the US Senate races this fall because: (1) […]