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Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters

As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]

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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2016 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. In this analysis, there will be a a practical application of those population shifts by demonstrating the impact on Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with […]

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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2016 population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While Louisiana’s population growth […]

Decision 2017: Is a Congressional Democratic “rebirth” happening?

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump six weeks ago, the perception is that Democrats have become energized, and with this renewed energy, they will be swept back into power in both houses of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. Is this enthusiasm grounded in fact? From previous analyses, JMC has noted that before a November […]

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Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?

Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]

Decision 2016: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong)?

Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]

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Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, revisited

Back in October, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed voter registration statistics in all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes to determine whether the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the […]

Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?

The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]

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(Runoff) In person early voting has concluded in Louisiana

In person early voting has now concluded, although mail in/absentee ballots (typically 3-5% of early voting volume) will still be accepted throughout next week. The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What did the early voting numbers tell us? (Still) […]

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Decision 2016 – (Halftime Report for) Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

In person has now been underway for several days for the December 10 runoff and will continue until this Saturday (December 3). The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What are we seeing so far, after three days of early voting ? (Still) […]

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