Decision 2016: The end of Presidential primary season

It’s official: both Hillary Clinton (on the Democratic side) and Donald Trump (on the Republican side) are the party nominees for President. However, last night’s results were a continuation of the narrative that has been in place for the last few weeks: Donald Trump has (despite recent gaffes) consolidated the support of Republican primary voters, while Hillary Clinton has struggled to assert her dominance among Democratic primary voters. This is especially problematic for her when you consider that voters went to the polls yesterday a day after the media declared her to be the nominee: weekend victories in Puerto Rico/the Virgin Islands, combined with a last minute switch of dozens of technically uncommitted “super delegates” (another term for Democratic elected officials who by their position are automatic delegates to the Democratic convention), enabled her to get the delegates she needed to clinch the nomination. Here’s what happened in each of six contests last night – enthusiasm/turnout for each party was considerably different, depending on the state:

New Jersey: Hillary Clinton 63%, Donald Trump 81%. Democratic turnout was 24% less than in 2008, while Republican turnout was 23% less;

New Mexico: Hillary Clinton 52%, Donald Trump 71%. Democratic turnout was 40% more than in 2008, while Republican turnout was 6% less;

South Dakota: Hillary Clinton 51%, Donald Trump 67%. Democratic turnout was 46% less than in 2008, whileRepublican turnout was 10% more;

North Dakota: Only Democrats voted last night (in a caucus), and Bernie Sanders overwhelmingly defeated Hillary Clinton 64-26%;

Montana: Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton 51-45%, while Donald Trump received 74% of the Republican vote (curiously, the eliminated Republican contenders were still on the ballot). Democratic turnout was 55% less than in 2008, while Republican turnout was up 61%;

California: Hillary Clinton 56%, Donald Trump 75%. Democratic turnout was down 31%, while Republican turnout was down 45%. However, these turnout figures are nowhere near complete: Many Californians vote by mail, and given the state’s sheer size (recent figures show 18 million are registered to vote), the state typically takes several weeks to count all of its ballots.

Despite the fact that conventions are over a month away for either party, general election season has begun. Hillary Clinton’s has two challenges: (1) uniting the Democratic Party behind her candidacy, and (2) reassembling the electoral coalition that elected Barack Obama in 2008/2012. In Donald Trump’s case, he needs to (1) establish himself as a legitimate contender among still nervous “establishment” Republicans (recent gaffes he committed haven’t in the short term helped him in this area), and (2) being able to pull Democratic votes from crucial swing states that have not voted Republican since 1988 or 2004.

Now that we are in general election mode, JMC Analytics and Polling will (starting next week) assess the Presidential contest on a state by state basis using a composite of publicly released polls.