At this point in the election cycle, the Republican contest has become an afterthought, as Republicans are slowly but surely coming around to Donald Trump, as evidenced by his showing in Oregon last night. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to be unable to “close the sale” with Democratic primary voters – Bernie Sanders came within 1,900 votes of winning the Kentucky contest, and he posted another win in Oregon. We will discuss each party’s primaries below:

Democratic contest

So how was it that Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly lost next door West Virginia last week, while narrowly winning Kentucky? Demographics accounted for the difference: West Virginia is almost entirely rural, and nearly every county is tied to the coal industry. And while Kentucky is mostly rural as well, 40% of the primary vote was cast in three urban areas (Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati suburbs), and Hillary Clinton’s 23K vote margin in those five counties was (barely) enough to offset the 21K margin Bernie Sanders posted outside those three metropolitan areas.

However, Democratic enthusiasm (despite the presence of Congressional and legislative races also on the ballot) was anemic: while the Clinton/Obama contest brought 702K voters to the polls, Democratic turnout was only about 455k – or a 35% drop in turnout relative to 2008.

(UPDATED 5/18 AM) Oregon was a different story. While it was a closed primary like Kentucky, the state has very few minorities, and its Democrats are very liberal. Accordingly, Sanders carried the state, although with an estimated 93% of the vote counted (Oregon does not have Election Day voting; its residents vote by mail), his 54-44% victory was somewhat below expectations, given that Obama swept the state 59-41% in 2008. And just like in Kentucky, Democratic turnout was down from 2008, despite the concurrent presence of Congressional, statewide, legislative, and judicial races on the ballot: the estimated Democratic turnout of 555K was 7% lower than it was in 2008.

Still, Clinton’s showings were good enough for her to clinch the Democratic nomination on June 7, when California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota vote.

Republican contest

(UPDATED 5/18 AM) The only Republican Presidential contest last night was in Oregon, as Kentucky opted for a caucus on March 5. With an estimated 91% of the vote counted (Oregon does not have Election Day voting; its residents vote by mail), Donald Trump won the state with 67% of the vote – a result somewhat lower (but not disastrously so) than the 72% of the vote Mitt Romney got in 2012 when he had long since wrapped up the Republican race. And curiously, Republican turnout remained high. Despite the presence of Congressional, statewide, legislative, and judicial contests on the ballot, it is estimated that 390K Republicans voted – a turnout 11% higher than in 2008.

The only remaining contests are in Washington next Tuesday, while on “Super Tuesday” on June 7, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota vote.