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By: Midterm Elections Halftime Report/June 22 primary preview | The Hayride

Midterm Elections Halftime Report/June 22 primary preview | The Hayride — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 00:36:27 +0000

[...] In a previous article, we listed five criteria to determine whether a Democratic incumbent or an open Democratic seat was vulnerable to takeover. Now that 25 primaries have passed, polls are being released now for individual House races, and we can therefore supplement our theoretical criteria with actual data (poll results) for states that have already held their primaries/runoffs. Using that criteria, we had previously projected a net GOP House gain of 78 seats. Recent polling data, however, suggests that two more Democratic seats previously rated as safe are now “Safe Republican” – the seats of Travis Childers (D-Mississippi) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-South Dakota). This means we are revising our estimates to a net GOP pickup of 80 seats. Furthermore, recent polls also show that there are three more safe Democratic seats where incumbents are leading but are all polling in the 45-46% range: Heath Shuler (D-North Carolina), David Wu (D-Oregon), and Ben Chandler (D-Kentucky). Finally, a recent poll on “Democrat behaving badly” Bob Etheridge (D-North Carolina), shows him trailing 38-39% against his (until now) little known Republican opponent. That same poll shows that 84% of district voters are aware of his assaulting two college students. [...]